Saturday, January 23, 2010

Signs of Global Stock Market Crash and Financial Meltdown

Stock-Markets / Financial Crash Jan 22, 2010 - 02:34 AM

By: Mac_Slavo

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere’s a lot of buzz hitting the contrarian financial news circles around the web regarding recent market weakness and the possibility for the end of the rally which began in March of 2009.

Many contrarian investors have been waiting for the crash that is inevitably to follow the largest US market rally in modern history, and this may be it. We caution our readers, however, that over the last year there have been various false signals, and rather than seeing a crash in the Summer of 2009 or Fall of 2009, stock markets continued to push up, despite abysmal economic fundamentals.

Is it the real thing this time?

Bert Dohmen, publisher of the Wellington Letter, says “This is the time for the bears to make money. Sell short any rally attempts.”

Dohmen, who suggested in December 2009 that early January would see a continued rise in stocks, anticipated a down-turn in late January. In his most recent letter, dispatched to subscribers January 21, 2010, Dohmen says that we can forget about the theory that “hyperinflation is right around the corner,” and that deflation and debt implosion is the major problem:

“Market analysts expect 2010 to see a rise in corporate earnings and sales. They are probably correct. But that will be met by further market weakness. You see, that’s what the stock rise of the prior 10 months was all about. Stocks are already priced for the best news that could possibly develop this year. When all the fund managers are positioned for this “good news,” there is no further money to go in. And that’s when the selling gets serious.

The recent news out of China is just what we have been warning about: tighter lending and monetary policies! Economic growth in the last quarter was a blistering 10.7% (officially), which obviously creates worries about inflation. Tighter money dampens speculative fever. And all the sins of the speculative bubble of 2009 will surface.

As a result, the US dollar is now in demand and is soaring. That kills the most important reasons for buying commodities. The dollar rally will be a lot stronger than even the few dollar bulls imagine. There will be a massive rush to close out short positions.”

In our earlier post this morning, Chinese Fed Shuts Down Lending, Capital Flees to Dollar, we suggested that the pullback in Chinese bank lending and stimulus, may force capital speculating in Asian stocks back to safety in the US Dollar. Dohmen seems to agree with this assessment.

J Derek Blain, of Investopedia, also thinks the stock markets may be turning. His view is that not only will the dollar rebound, but we will see equities prices, commodities, and precious metals turn to the down-side in the near term, as more capital flows into the US Dollar. Blain is quite bearish on short-term precious metals prices, so if you haven’t stocked up on gold and silver, perhaps you’ll have yet another opportunity in the near future because Blain says The Big One Could Finally Be Here:

“But here’s the interesting thing - finally, after 5 weeks of watching gold top and begin its bear market decline, and the major stock indexes make new highs, we might have just witnessed the turning point in all “risk assets”.

And that is really one of the keys, and one thing we have been saying for several months now. Whenever the precious metals are treated as risk assets for the purposes of capital gains, they are not in a bull market but in a false rally. The psychology that drives this sort of rally is hope-based, completely mood-driven, and ultimately comes unwound like the thread in a poorly knit sweater.

What we are looking for, here at Investophoria, is despair. Until we see such a thing in the precious metals we cannot recommend buying them. If we did without it, we would be advising you to get in line and be “the sucker” who is willing to pay a higher price.”



“The next leg down in both gold and silver should be very fast and will take many more by surprise who have run to them seeking to make back the losses they sustained in stocks in the last bear-market leg.”

If the global stock markets start to pull back, gold and silver are going with them. While gold is a safe haven asset in times of distress, it is important to note that the broader picture for the time being is that gold has not decoupled from the stock market in general and remains closely tied to the inverse movement of the US Dollar, as was evidenced by gold’s reaction to the Dubai stock market collapse in November 2009.

For traders (not investors) looking to make short term profits, precious metals are just as dangerous as the stock market right now. If you are a long-term precious metals investor, turn off the news and stop watching daily price movement in precious metals, you should be fine when gold does finally decouple from other assets and becomes a safety asset, not because of inflationary fears, but because instability in the public (government) sector.

When this will happen is anybody’s guess, but there should be a floor for gold, because as the price collapses, it will become attractive for large buyers, especially central banks in China, India and Russia. So, there really is no need to run out and sell all your gold bullion to Cash4Gold at 60% less than it is worth. The longer trend for gold is still entact.

The dollar seems to be the beneficiary of recent market mini-panics, as evidenced by corrections in US markets last year, Dubai and now the shift in capital out of Chinese assets.

How can this be, you ask? Isn’t the dollar supposed to be on an unstoppable collapse to a value of exactly zero? Well, yes, it is on a collapse trajectory, but it is important to note that this will not happen in one fell swoop. There are gyrations in the markets, and since the US Dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, regardless of talk from Russia and China, this is where the money will go when everything else is collapsing. We strongly believe that this trend will eventually end and the ultimate safety asset class will become precious metals, but in a paper world, when the SHTF, capital flees to the safest paper around, which ironically, is the US Dollar.

Considering that the US Treasury needs to fund roughly $1.5 Trillion in new debt via Treasury sales in 2010, a global stock market collapse could be the US government’s saving grace, as Graham Summers recently pointed out:

“So how do you create interest? [In US Treasuries]

Simple, let the stock market collapse. The “flight to safety” that would follow would push billions if not hundreds of billions of dollars into Treasuries, soaking up the debt issuance and roll-over with little difficulty.”

It sounds mad scientist sinister, but quite realistic when you give it the consideration it deserves. The Fed, Treasury, Congress and the administrations have continually taken ridiculous, if not criminal, actions over the last several years. What’s to stop them now? It’s really a quite simple plan - pull back on stimulus in the US and China, have the big investment banks rip their profits out of equities and shift into US Treasuries, and leave panicked investors who thought the economic recovery was sustainable scrambling for the exits.

Theoretically, this all sounds quite feasible, but how are we looking from a technical perspective? Tyler Durden of Zero Hedge weighs in on the argument for the dollar:

“The DXY is about to break the 78.449 high last achieved on December 22: at 78.320 we are very close. Greece is helping. When that resistance is breached, look for Europe to start panicking and also all those who still have the dollar short trade on to start rushing through the exits.”

Though it may still be too early to tell, the technical signals suggest that the ingredients for a crash seem to be in place and conditions for a serious down-turn are now more likely than anytime in the last ten months.

By Mac Slavo

http://www.shtfplan.com/

Mac Slavo is a small business owner and independent investor focusing on global strategies to protect, preserve and increase wealth during times of economic distress and uncertainty. To read our commentary, news reports and strategies, please visit www.SHTFplan.com

© 2010 Copyright Mac Slavo - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2010 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Foxy 'Roxxxy': world’s first 'sex robot' can talk about football

Telegraph.co.uk. ^ | 11 Jan 2010 | Andrew Hough

Posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:43:06 AM by Malone LaVeigh

The world’s first “sex robot”, a life-size rubber doll called Roxxxy who can have real conversations with her owner, including about football, has been unveiled. The dark-haired, negligee-clad, life-size robotic girlfriend comes complete with artificial intelligence and flesh-like synthetic skin.

Standing five feet, seven inches tall, the doll weighs 120 pounds, comes with five “personalities”, is “ready for action” her developers said.


(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...


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TOPICS: Computers/Internet; Society; Sports
KEYWORDS: robot; science; sex; weirdscience
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Contribute to FR: $10 $20 $50 $100

Or mail checks to: FreeRepublic, LLC, PO Box 9771, Fresno, CA 93794

There is Wild Wendy, who is outgoing and adventurous, Frigid Farrah, who is reserved and shy, a young unnamed doll with a naïve personality, “matriarchal kind of caring” Mature Martha and S & M Susan, who is geared for more adventurous types.



Something for everybody.


1 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:43:09 AM by Malone LaVeigh
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To: Malone LaVeigh; Owl_Eagle; Sam's Army; Darksheare; pissant; najida; r-q-tek86; blackie; ...
PLAYING WITH DOLLS...PING!!



2 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:45:36 AM by Jersey Republican Biker Chick (Cleverly disguised as a responsible adult.)
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To: Malone LaVeigh
I don’t even want to know how you stumbled onto this article. LOL ;-)

BPE



3 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:46:01 AM by Be_Politically_Erect (Sailing Against My Will On A Ship Of Fools)
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To: Malone LaVeigh
Can you use it to drive in the HOV lane?



4 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:46:39 AM by thulldud (It HAS happened here!)
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To: Malone LaVeigh
Guess she is a dream come true for some men.



Maybe a new t-shirt is due to come on the market.



5 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:47:16 AM by K-oneTexas (I'm not a judge and there ain't enough of me to be a jury. (Zell Miller, A National Party No More))
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To: Jersey Republican Biker Chick
comes with five “personalities”
Can I have "Bit*h on Wheels" for $200?"


6 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:48:42 AM by Tijeras_Slim (Live jubtabulously!)
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To: Malone LaVeigh
Damn....too late for John Edwards.

Cudda saved him some grief!



7 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:49:01 AM by JimVT (Oh, the days of the Kerry dancing, Oh, the ring of the piper's tune)
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To: Malone LaVeigh
Who’s Roxxxy like in the NFC Championship game? Saints or Vikes...?



8 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:49:36 AM by freebilly (No wonder the left has a boner for Obama. There's CIALIS in soCIALISt....)
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To: Tijeras_Slim
She seems a little stiff....



9 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:49:39 AM by refermech
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To: Malone LaVeigh
>> dark-haired... girlfriend comes complete with artificial intelligence

The blonde one doesn’t have the AI, so it’s a little cheaper.



10 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:50:01 AM by Nervous Tick (Eat more spinach! Make Green Jobs for America!)
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To: Malone LaVeigh
“comes with five “personalities”

Sounds like every guys ex-wife.



11 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:50:28 AM by Gator113 (Obama is America's First FAILED "light skinned African American [Pres-dent] with no Negro dialect..")
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To: Malone LaVeigh
Can she cook?



12 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:51:02 AM by Gator113 (Obama is America's First FAILED "light skinned African American [Pres-dent] with no Negro dialect..")
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To: Jersey Republican Biker Chick
She cant cook or clean, but she can talk creases and touch backs.



13 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:51:11 AM by hoe_cake (a state of limerent consciousness)
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To: Gator113
Clinton would love this..



14 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:51:45 AM by Col Frank Slade
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To: Malone LaVeigh
Until they come out with a robot that can cook and clean I’ll remain content in my marriage. After that, I’ll have to start watching my back, I guess!



15 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:52:07 AM by JenB987
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To: Tijeras_Slim
“comes with five “personalities”

I take meds for that.



16 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:52:19 AM by hoe_cake (a state of limerent consciousness)
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To: Malone LaVeigh
I feel strangely... ambivalent.

17 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:52:37 AM by RC one (WHAT!!!)
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To: Malone LaVeigh
“She can't vacuum, she can't cook but she can do almost anything else if you know what I mean,”
So, they used my ex-wife for the template?

“She's a companion. She has a personality. She hears you. She listens to you."

Oh wait, never mind.


18 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:53:11 AM by DemforBush (Now officially 100% ex-Democrat.)
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To: Malone LaVeigh
Ah, the Stepford Wives.

“...a young unnamed doll with a naïve personality...”

Okay, that’s going from sick in the mind, to Japanese businessman.



19 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:53:21 AM by ReneeLynn (Socialism is SO yesterday. Fascism, it*s the new black. Mmm Mmm Mmm.)
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To: hoe_cake
So she can’t cook or clean but can sit there and just talk? Geez I divorced one of those I don’t need another.



20 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:53:24 AM by Pylon (Tagline: (optional, printed after your name on post):)
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To: Malone LaVeigh
Kinda expensive can you buy a used one?



21 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:53:42 AM by al baby (Hi Mom sarc ;))
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To: All
Real Doll anyone?



22 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:53:57 AM by Maverick68
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To: Jersey Republican Biker Chick
When will they come out with a robot that puts the toilet seat down and gives up the remote once in awhile?



23 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:54:11 AM by JenB987
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To: Jersey Republican Biker Chick
“comes with five personalities”

All of them active at the same time.



24 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:54:26 AM by Darksheare (Tar is cheap, and feathers are plentiful.)
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To: Pylon
but just think, after the initial installment, she won’t cost you a dime.



25 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:54:29 AM by hoe_cake (a state of limerent consciousness)
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To: Malone LaVeigh
Cleaning kit sold separately.



26 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:55:17 AM by Nervous Tick (Eat more spinach! Make Green Jobs for America!)
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To: Malone LaVeigh
How does she get recharged?



27 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:55:31 AM by Ravi
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To: Malone LaVeigh
Y’know, from now on, whenever I’m pissed off about my job, I think I’ll remember to cheer up...it’s not so bad...at least I’m not a salesman for one of these things...(shudder...)



28 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:56:56 AM by Axeslinger (Where has my country gone?)
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To: JenB987
>> When will they come out with a robot that puts the toilet seat down

You’re HOW old, and you haven’t learned how to operate a toilet seat?

:-)

don’t hurt me



29 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:56:56 AM by Nervous Tick (Eat more spinach! Make Green Jobs for America!)
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To: Malone LaVeigh
Great. All the future technology geeks will hook up with her instead of finally getting married.

After three generations, we won’t have anybody left who knows how to fix anything except for her.



30 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:57:08 AM by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: Nervous Tick
Two points here...
Why is it incumbent upon men to put the seat down...why don't women share equal responsibility to put it up?

And more importantly...if they'd like, we could just leave it down and p!ss all over it...would they prefer that?


31 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:59:58 AM by Axeslinger (Where has my country gone?)
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To: Axeslinger
>> if they’d like, we could just leave it down and p!ss all over it...would they prefer that?

No... trust me, I’ve tried it and 100% of the survey sample did NOT prefer it. (N=1, margin of error zero)



32 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:02:16 AM by Nervous Tick (Eat more spinach! Make Green Jobs for America!)
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To: Malone LaVeigh
She is wirelessly linked to the internet for software updates, technical support and to send her man email messages, he said
That is pretty fracked up right there.

Still, imagine if someone at CRU had had one of these.


33 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:03:39 AM by agere_contra
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To: Tijeras_Slim
I am sure they can accommodate your request.



34 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:03:57 AM by Jersey Republican Biker Chick (Cleverly disguised as a responsible adult.)
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To: JenB987
When will they come out with a robot that puts the toilet seat down and gives up the remote once in awhile?
Don't worry, modern science to the rescue ...

A male version of the doll, dubbed Rocky, is also planned.


35 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:04:47 AM by Malone LaVeigh
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To: Nervous Tick
I'd have paid good money to be a fly on the wall watching THAT conversation!!!
LOL


36 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:04:57 AM by Axeslinger (Where has my country gone?)
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To: JenB987
You know if they have one of those, let me know!!



37 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:06:06 AM by Jersey Republican Biker Chick (Cleverly disguised as a responsible adult.)
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To: JimVT
Yeah, and whadabout Tiger?



38 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:07:17 AM by fivecatsandadog (You better HOPE you end up with more than a little CHANGE in your pocket when he's finished.)
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To: Axeslinger
And more importantly...if they'd like, we could just leave it down and p!ss all over it...would they prefer that?
this is not a problem in my house of boys... they were all taught during potty training to lift the seat when doing the deed, put the seat down and then the lid... flush... wash hands... the job was complete after they washed their hands... why most parents are just satisfied when their toddlers just pee in the toilet is beyond me... at least teach them the washing their hands step... i love that my boys are rough and tumblers with a touch of genteelity...


39 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:07:47 AM by latina4dubya ( self-proclaimed tequila snob)
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To: Malone LaVeigh
A male version of the doll, dubbed Rocky, is also planned.


"Women weaken servos!"


40 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:09:07 AM by Tijeras_Slim (Live jubtabulously!)
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To: DemforBush
She can’t vacuum, she can’t cook but she can do almost anything else if you know what I mean,” the New Jersey-based artificial intelligence engineer said.

I’m reminded of the words of that great American philosopher Rodney Dangerfield:

“Marry a woman who can cook. The sex will wear off but you’ll always be hungry.”



41 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:11:45 AM by fredhead (Liberals think globally, reason rectally, act idiotically.)
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To: Jersey Republican Biker Chick
Read post 41.



42 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:12:15 AM by fredhead (Liberals think globally, reason rectally, act idiotically.)
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To: Malone LaVeigh
Now, if they would just build a male robot who can dance and help in the garden . . . .



43 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:24:02 AM by Ellendra (Can't starve us out, and you can't make us run. . . -Hank Jr.)
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To: Malone LaVeigh
Who will be the first guy that wants to marry his doll? If gays can marry, why not humans and robots? Then who will be the first gay guy that wants to marry his gay guy robot? Guarantee you, it’s coming, not a question of if but when.



44 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:26:15 AM by decisis
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To: al baby
Kinda expensive can you buy a used one?

Dude!

45 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:28:52 AM by BJClinton (0bama is not the anti-christ. Satan wouldn't be such a screw up.)
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To: thackney
You just answered my question ... I was wondering what the kids would be like.



46 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:36:54 AM by Fast Moving Angel (We'll remember in November!)
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To: BJClinton
What i could wash it up



47 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:37:30 AM by al baby (Hi Mom sarc ;))
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To: BJClinton
snort!



48 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:38:57 AM by hoe_cake (a state of limerent consciousness)
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To: Malone LaVeigh
As easy and shallow as many women are these days, I can’t see what purpose this serves.



49 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:53:47 AM by EricT. (Can we start hanging them yet?)
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To: Malone LaVeigh
CREEPY!



50 posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:55:45 AM by airborne

Friday, January 22, 2010

Options Signal 3% S&P 500 Retreat as VIX Rises Most Since 2008

By Lynn Thomasson and Jeff Kearns

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Traders are speculating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will fall as much as 3 percent, according to options bets on the benchmark gauge for stock market volatility during the last two days.

Wagers that the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index will jump 46 percent to 32.5 were the most-active contract. A surge to that level may herald a decline to about 1082 for the S&P 500, said Randy Frederick, director of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab & Co. The stock gauge slipped 2.9 percent to 1,116.48 since Jan. 20, while the VIX advanced 27 percent to 22.27, the biggest two-day gain since November 2008.

“In the next few days, we’re going to see more volatility,” Frederick said in an interview from Austin, Texas. “The level of complacency earlier was simply too low. A single- day move from 25 to 30 on the VIX could easily mean a 3 percent drop in the market.”

Traders who buy options that pay off when the VIX rises are usually betting stocks will retreat because it moves in the opposite direction of the S&P 500 more than 80 percent of the time. The S&P 500 sank 2.8 percent on Oct. 30, when the VIX last climbed above 30. It retreated 2.1 percent and 2.8 percent when the options measure exceeded that level on July 7 and 8 and June 22 and 23, respectively.

The VIX is derived from investor expectations for market swings over the next 30 days using a formula that incorporates the implied volatility, a key gauge of options prices, for S&P 500 puts and calls that are one or two months from expiration.

Worldwide Decline

Equities around the world have declined since Jan. 20, sending the S&P 500 down 2.9 percent, after the White House proposed to reduce risk-taking at banks and concern grew that China will take more steps to slow economic growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 2 percent yesterday to erase its gain for 2010.

The surge yesterday “was pretty significant for the VIX,” said Stefen Choy, founder of Livevol Inc., a San Francisco-based provider of options market data and analytics. “Maybe people are starting to feel that the market is running out of steam.”

About 64,000 February 32.50 calls on the VIX traded in the past two days. The options gauge, which has averaged 20.28 over its 19-year history, last closed above 32.5 on June 16.

Eighty-nine percent of those contracts changed hands on the ask price, which indicates they were initiated by buyers. The February 32.50 calls have more than doubled since Jan. 20 to 60 cents.

Investors have also sought protection by purchasing shares of the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures exchange-traded note, which added 5.4 percent to $29.32 yesterday. Volume jumped to 11.43 million, the highest since the ETN began trading almost a year ago and more than twice the 4.21 million four-week average. The number of shares outstanding has more than doubled in the last six weeks to 40,447. The VXX, as the note is known, tracks futures for the options benchmark.

VIX futures that expire in March gained 5.4 percent to $24.10 on Jan. 21, while April’s added 4 percent to 24.55.

“You get two days like this and people do start to sit up and notice,” said Carl Mason, head of U.S. equity derivatives strategy at BNP Paribas SA in New York. “People are betting on higher levels of volatility in the short term.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net; Jeff Kearns in New York at jkearns3@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: January 22, 2010 00:00 EST

Broad Based Declined Across Financial Markets Except the Dollar, The Big One Could Finally Be Here

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 Jan 21, 2010 - 12:08 PM

By: J_Derek_Blain

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week, we are witnessing something that should become fairly "as usual" over the coming months: Broad based price declines in virtually every major asset except the USD.

Gold is down about 3% for the week so far, silver is down about 6.5% for the week, and the USD is up (according to our analysis there really isn't much chance of it going anywhere else for the next while).

But here's the interesting thing - finally, after 5 weeks of watching gold top and begin its bear market decline, and the major stock indexes make new highs, we might have just witnessed the turning point in all "risk assets".

And that is really one of the keys, and one thing we have been saying for several months now. Whenever the precious metals are treated as risk assets for the purposes of capital gains, they are not in a bull market but in a false rally. The psychology that drives this sort of rally is hope-based, completely mood-driven, and ultimately comes unwound like the thread in a poorly knit sweater.

What we are looking for, here at Investophoria, is despair. Until we see such a thing in the precious metals we cannot recommend buying them. If we did without it, we would be advising you to get in line and be "the sucker" who is willing to pay a higher price. Being dedicated to a philosophy is one thing (i.e. Gold = economic freedom and real possibility for growth), but being blindly glued to an asset of any kind will leave you wondering "how could this happen?" when the psychology unwinds around you.

Our position on metals stays the same - gold is in a shorter-term bear market than silver and should bottom long before the white metal. We are hoping to have a subscription letter available for when that time comes so that our subscribers will be the first to know when to convert those USDs back into the real money.

The other thing of note (which is far more broad-based in terms of effect) is that it looks like maybe, just maybe, the major indexes have put in their all-time high for this bear market rally. Perhaps more than a simple "maybe", as the probability of that scenario just increased again this morning.

All things considered, the Dow has followed our forecasts very well thus far and we feel that the safest bet for conservative investors is to close out all long positions and hold cash - for the more experienced traders and investors, a maximum leveraged short position with a stop set about 30 points above where the minor channel line and major trend line cross is an excellent trading opportunity.

I have received several emails from readers this morning who were absolutely shocked at the declines in precious metals over the past several days - as I said in my last silver article, there were several great opportunities to sell your silver stocks and paper positions at >$18.75 over three trading days. Those who did not take that opportunity will be hard pressed to find another good exit opportunity above $15.00 / oz.

The next leg down in both gold and silver should be very fast and will take many more by surprise who have run to them seeking to make back the losses they sustained in stocks in the last bear-market leg. If you have been following my recommendations (and actions), you will be able to sit on the sidelines and be at ease, or be in a solid paper short position and earning money while the crowd loses. A word of warning about short positions - another anticipation we have is that this decline is going to be so broad based and so fast that you may attempt to close it out and receive a message from your brokerage saying they cannot process your transaction due to sheer volume. Try to find lower-volume (i.e. flat or mild counter-trend) days to exit positions as the probability of having your transaction processed will be highest. Make sure you are trading with a broker who has the appropriate facilities to accommodate such scenarios.

Again, I will re-iterate our big-picture position. We are in a deflationary era. As such anything based on credit or its availability will first and foremost be pommeled. There is absolutely no safe place to hide except in cash or its nearest equivalents. All assets in all classes are going to lose value - some more and some less - while cash increases its purchasing power as total money and its velocity shrink and slow to a crawl. We are in cash, 20% LEAPS, and watching the action with a feeling of peace.

By J. Derek Blain

http://www.investophoria.com

Friday, January 8, 2010

Victor Davis Hanson: Bush Did It! And, Really, Bush Did It! And Bush Really Did It!

Pajamas Media ^ | January 6th, 2010 | Victor Davis Hanson

Posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 12:42:59 PM by neverdem

That Damn Guantanamo!

Obama gave a rather incredible press conference about his review of security lapses. When he evoked Guantanamo, the president all at once (“make no mistake about it”) (a) promised to close it, (b) promised not to send any more detainees home to Yemen, and (c) claimed it was a recruiting tool for al-Qaeda (i.e., apparently Bush’s Gulag had prompted the likes of Umar Farouk Abdul Mutallab to try to blow up an airliner).

This is nearly unhinged.

Mr. President consider:

1) Quit whining about closing Guantanamo, and close the damn thing. It either is useful or not. The American people are getting sick and tired of this sort of “Bush made me keep it open even though it is counter-productive” whining. If Guantanamo is a recruiting tool, then by all means stop the recruiting tool. Instead, we get the impression that these incredibly directionless people have discovered that Guantanamo has both utility and yet is a political liability among their more fervent supporters, and therefore they wish to continue its usefulness while blaming Bush for its unpopularity.

2) If you are not going to send back any more “alleged” terrorists to Yemen, then simply start trying them in your much preferred civilian courts. Why hold them any longer in the Gulag?

3) Let us get this straight: for a decade in the 1990s an ascendant al-Qaeda committed serial attacks against the U.S. and its interests. All that culminated in 9/11. In reaction to the mass murder, and as part of efforts to go after al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan, Bush opened Guantanamo Bay — after which we have seen no successful major attacks on U.S. soil comparable to 9/11.

So consider the logic: before Guantanamo, al-Qaeda achieved its greatest success in damaging America; after it, it...

(Excerpt) Read more at pajamasmedia.com ...
TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bush; bushsfault; gwb; obama; vdh

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1 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 12:43:00 PM by neverdem
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To: Tolik

ping

2 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 12:45:51 PM by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: neverdem

I’d hate to be on the receiving end of a VDH tub-thumpin’.

3 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 12:48:00 PM by Uncle Miltie ("Free" Healthcare + Citizenship for Lawbreakers = Democrats Forever! Buenos Dias!)
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To: neverdem
Maybe obamallamadingdong is a reincarnation of "Flip Wilson"...when he did his "Geraldine" character, his/her favorite phrase was, "The Devil Made Me Do It".

The kenyan kinda "prisses" like Geraldine, and his favorite phrase is, "The Bush Made Me Do It".

Watchit sucka!
4 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 12:50:33 PM by FrankR (Unions promote socialism and mass mediocrity amongst human beings, at their own expense.)
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To: neverdem

He might have said the bucks stops with him but he sure keeps trying to pass it.

5 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 12:53:07 PM by GeronL (http://libertyfic.proboards,com)
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To: neverdem

Obama’s mind is infected with guilt, weakness, ignorance, selfishness, and Islam. This makes him a threat to our existence as a country. Lies and distortions are his means to survival.

His presidency is a failure and cannot be reversed with repeated trips to the teleprompter. This Voodoo Magic Man needs to resign and go back to Kenya where roots his are.

6 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 12:53:43 PM by bushpilot1
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To: neverdem

Boy! Dr. H sure is good when he’s pissed!

7 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 12:58:49 PM by ProfoundMan (Time to finish the Reagan Revolution! - RightyPics.com)
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To: GeronL

True enough. Whenever things aren’t going well, Obama just says the buck stops with the guy who came before him.

8 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 1:05:33 PM by bigbob
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To: neverdem

9 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 1:13:31 PM by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

You have gotten quite good at these graphics, smooth. ;*)

10 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 1:26:09 PM by Just A Nobody ( (Better Dead than RED! NEVER AGAIN...Support our Troops! Beware the ENEMEDIA))
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To: neverdem

I predict that by the time he runs for re-election, Guantanamo will still be open and he’ll still be blaming Bush for it.

11 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 1:35:33 PM by Old Teufel Hunden
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To: smoothsailing

I don’t know...the opposite of “The Buck Stops Here” isn’t really “The Buck Starts Here”. It’s something more along the lines of “The Buck Goes Sailing Right By Here”.

12 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 1:36:07 PM by GATOR NAVY
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To: GATOR NAVY

“I don’t know...the opposite of “The Buck Stops Here” isn’t really “The Buck Starts Here”. It’s something more along the lines of “The Buck Goes Sailing Right By Here”.”

Actually, in this administration, it is: “What is this ‘buck’ you speak of . . . Oh, that. Well, I never saw the buck—noone ever gave it to me. Wait a minute, I know I know: George Bush has it and is beating children with it at this very moment. And, let me be perfectly clear, Bush is also using this buck to make me add a trillion dollars a year to the deficit. So you see, the system works in all 57 states.”

13 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 1:46:04 PM by ModelBreaker
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To: neverdem
"After it"---stay tuned.

vaudine
14 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 1:46:42 PM by vaudine
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To: smoothsailing

More like “The balk starts here.”

15 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 1:47:32 PM by PeaceBeWithYou (De Oppresso Liber! (50 million and counting in Afganistan and Iraq))
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To: bigbob

Apparently, he thinks Bush is still in office. I wish he was.

16 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 1:48:39 PM by Catsrus
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To: Just A Nobody

:o)
17 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 1:51:03 PM by smoothsailing
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To: neverdem
Question about President Obama: 1) Is he an ideologue bent on wrecking America, or 2) a naive and inexperienced incompetent?

Answer: After a year of observing, it is clear, he is both at the same time.
18 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 1:56:47 PM by cookcounty (Let us not speak of the honor of men. Rather, let us bind them with the Constitution. --Jefferson)
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To: neverdem

Great article....I heard a dem on Hannity’s show tonight saying if the dems pass health care...it will destroy the dem party...

19 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 2:08:10 PM by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: shield
Great article....I heard a dem on Hannity’s show tonight saying if the dems pass health care...it will destroy the dem party...

No way but it will destroy America & what it has stood for for centuries. I've got to give it to TRUE ideologues (Dems). They will die on a sword for their beliefs - as opposed to most so-called conservatives that talk a screwed up story but can't wait to get to the watering hole.
20 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 2:52:24 PM by Digger (If RINO is your selection, then failure is your election)
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To: smoothsailing

Buck Zer0.

21 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 3:18:18 PM by Paladin2
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To: neverdem
Only a proctologist can divine what's in our Feckless Leader's mind.
22 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 3:31:21 PM by BIGLOOK (Keelhaul Congress!)
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To: smoothsailing

Now THAT actually made me laugh.

Good job, FRiend, and thank you.

23 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 3:35:57 PM by Don W (I only keep certain folks' numbers in my 'phone so I know NOT to answer when they call)
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To: GATOR NAVY

The Buck Holder goes under the bus here.

24 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 3:38:49 PM by Paladin2
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To: neverdem

25 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 3:41:36 PM by Liberty Valance (Keep a simple manner for a happy life :o)
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Need help. Can someone explain OTCBB and/or Pink Sheets Trading?

Posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 1:02:20 PM by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

Can someone explain something to me? Mesa Airlines (MESA) just filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy. Almost all other companies I've observed filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy still have their stock trading on the OTCBB exchange or "Pink Sheets". The company reported that they do not expect the stock to be immediately available for OTCBB trading. What does this mean? Another story says a certain form (211 I think) must be filed by a market maker who might decide to pick up and trade the bankrupt company stock on an exchange. Is there a chance MESA stock will trade in the OTC market? Thanks.
TOPICS: Business/Economy; Chit/Chat
KEYWORDS: market; otcbb; pinksheets; stock

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Just wondering if someone out there could give me details on possible scenarios for MESA stock. Can they completely shut down trading on a stock that trades several million shares a day (even in bankruptcy)?
1 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 1:02:22 PM by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

Trust me, run from that stock and trade.

The way to make money in the market is to get rich slow.
- Buy a company with a strong history of earnings and sales growth
- Make sure it has substantial cash to debt
- Make sure it has a return on equity of at least 12%
- Make sure annual historic capital expense is not more than 1/3 of earnings per share
- Buy at a pe no more than the return on equity percent and no more than 18.

I just spent 4 weeks looking at 2400 stocks and 98 met this goal. I then bought a four of them.

Research, Research, Research, Research

2 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 1:10:31 PM by joinedafterattack
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

Pink sheet FAQ:

http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/otcguide/issuers_getquoted.jsp

I stay away from pinksheet stocks myself. My impression of the market is that it is even more crooked than the standard fare.

3 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 1:14:22 PM by freespirited (People talk about "too big to fail." Our government is too big to succeed. --Chris Chocola)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

You may need to forget this stock, it’s done. If the cost of selling it out was even $10, it would require 221 shares just to pay the broker to dump it.

4 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 1:15:49 PM by HighWheeler
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To: HighWheeler

I realize it is going to end up having no value. My question is — Is it going to be allowed to trade in the OTCBB? Other bankrupt stocks have traded there such as Lehman, Smurfit-Stone, Calpine, Mirant, etc. Will this stock get to trade or will it just be abruptly cancelled?

5 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 1:19:31 PM by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

Sounds like you want to sell some. If you get a bid, HIT IT>

6 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 1:29:45 PM by groanup
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To: joinedafterattack

Sounds like sound advice.

Where did you get this list, by your own research or from another?

And has any analysis of this purchase plan’s long term results been done?

Just a book name or link will get me started on research....

Thanks.

7 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 1:53:33 PM by bajabaja (Too ugly to be scanned at the airports.)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

I have seen many bankrupt stock trade on Pinks latest is Washington Mutual. Amazingly these stocks go up because shorts want to cover to close the books. When the dust settles the stock flat line or rises from possible phoenix out of the ashes rumors (very unlikely for Mesa).

8 posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 2:00:31 PM by Orange1998

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

U.S. Declares War on Smurfs, Hundreds Dead in "Shock and Awe" Style Carpet-Bombing Campaign

Wednesday, October 12, 2005
U.S. Declares War on Smurfs, Hundreds Dead in "Shock and Awe" Style Carpet-Bombing Campaign

posted by Mr. Right



In a bold and stunning move, U.S. President George W. Bush declared war on the Smurfs earlier today, claiming it was yet another facet of the Global War on Terror. When footage of the bombing raid on the Smurf Village was televised in Belgium, images of dead and dying Smurfs, including a badly burned Baby Smurf, caused an immediate condemnation of America, the 543rd such condemnation from a European country this week, but only the 18th from anywhere other than France. The United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund, UNICEF, soon began using the footage in a new anti-war fund-raising campaign.

Left-wing bloggers were quickly flooding the Internet with their take on the reasons for the attack. Many of those theories centered on the United States' aversion to the Smurfs' well-documented Marxist lifestyle; widespread rumors about Smurf Satan-Worshiping tendencies that had first spread throughout Latin America in the early 1980's; President Bush's personal objection to homosexuality, which was believed to be rampant among the nearly-all male Smurf population; or moral objections to cloning, which many believed to be their only effective method of reproduction. The most popular theory by far, however, had to do with Haliburton and the Smurfs' rich deposits of mushroom oil.

Rev. Jesse Jackson was among those who were quick to condemn the White House, "This is clearly nothing more than another attack on people of color, in this case blue," said Rev. Jackson, who badly bruised his left knee while tripping over himself in a rush to find the nearest television camera.

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld attempted to clear up the situation in a press conference at the Pentagon a short time ago.

Let me dispel all of these ridiculous rumors being thrown around out there right now with such reckless abandon. The truth of the matter is, we had evidence, much of which the President will make plain tonight when he addresses the nation, of a clear and immediate threat against the United States. The plot was uncovered after the capture of a Smurf cell in the Los Angeles area late last week, which included such diabolical individuals as Brainy Smurf, Handy Smurf, Grouchy Smurf and Jihadi Smurf. These individuals were laying the ground work for a horrific attack using Weapons of Mass Desmurftion, which had the very real possibility of killing millions of innocent Americans.

Most Americans still view the Smurfs as the same cute, harmless little creatures from the television show that ended more than 15 years ago. Nothing could be further from the truth. In the years that have followed, their society suffered terribly from the lost television and merchandising revenue and they became increasingly radicalized, particularly after embracing Wahhabism several years back. How many of you know that Smurfette had recently been publicly whipped for having her burka slip and show a tiny portion of her ankle? Or that Vanity Smurf and Dreamy Smurf had been hung last year for committing acts of homosexuality? Let me assure you this attack was both necessary and justified.



A seriously wounded Papa Sheik al-Smurf condemned the "unprovoked" attack in a strongly worded communique released earlier today...

The war criminal Gargamel W. Bushitler must pay for his smurfrageous and smurflegal attack on our smurful little village! Smurf you, Chimpy! We will see you smurf in Hell! The United States of America must smurf - and Allah willing, smurf it will! We will smurfvail! Allah Smurfbar!

Margaret Thatcher’s first priority in 1979: slash the Civil Service

During Margaret Thatcher’s first months in power she clashed with ministers, cold-shouldered civil servants and declined an offer of 20 “karate ladies” to guard her at an international summit, secret government papers reveal today.

One of her first moves on taking office in May was to start cutting Civil Service jobs. The Government machine needed cutting by at least 5 per cent, she insisted, but ideally closer to 20 per cent.

Any minister who tried to block her was given short shrift. “This paper is much too sketchy and cannot possibly be included,” she wrote on a draft paper in which Christopher Soames, the Lord President of the Council, suggested that the mass redundancies planned by the Prime Minister were less than prudent. “What are we doing with 566,000 that can’t be done with 500,000?”

There was no let-up in her battle with the Civil Service, even over Christmas. Sir Ian Bancroft, head of the Civil Service, asked in a letter dated November 20 whether the Prime Minister might send a Christmas message “to make it clear” that ministers “do appreciate the work done by the services”, and to avoid public servants seeking sanctuary with the unions. A suggested message was even drafted.
Related Links

* How Britain tactfully told the Shah to keep out

* Beans held to ransom in Winter of Discontent

* Failures that led to Mountbatten's death

Multimedia

* National Archives: files from 1997

“I write this to you not as a matter of routine but because I want you to know that I and my colleagues in the Government have greatly appreciated the way the Civil Service has faced its task since we took office last May,” it read. “The new year will be a challenging one for ministers and civil servants. But in the meantime I wish you a well-earned and happy Christmas.”

Sir Ian overestimated the Iron Lady’s desire for a lull in hostilities. Her private secretary responded that she had “decided that she does not wish to send such a message. She has commented that of course she wished everyone in the Civil Service a happy Christmas but that an ‘official’ message does not seem quite right.”

Mrs Thatcher’s forthright, if pragmatic, style was also evident in her dealings with Rhodesia after the April 1979 election, which resulted in a power-sharing arrangement that involved neither of the main nationalist parties. When it was suggested that Lord Harlech, emissary to Rhodesia, should meet the Patriotic Front there, she scribbled: “No! Please do not meet with the ‘Patriotic Front’. I have never done business with terrorists until they become prime ministers.”

In the months before the world got used to Mrs Thatcher, many would make mistakes in their dealings with her. The Japanese intended to deploy 20 “karate ladies” to protect her at an economic summit in Tokyo. Mrs Thatcher was having none of it.

A civil servant from the Protocol and Conference Department wrote: “The Prime Minister would like to be treated in exactly the same manner as other visiting heads of delegation: it is not the degree of protection that is in question but the particular means of carrying it out. If other delegation leaders, for example, are each being assigned 20 karate gentlemen, the Prime Minister would have no objection to this; but she does not wish to be singled out.”

Guns, it turned out, were more her style than karate. When the Government was having problems getting arms for the Royal Ulster Constabulary because the US refused an export licence for a Ruger handgun, Mrs Thatcher revealed her expertise at a White House meeting with President Carter. “Almost all the other police forces in the UK had similar US weapons to those which had been ordered for the RUC,” the minutes said. “The RUC itself already had 3,000 of the weapons in question. It seemed very strange to deny them the remainder of the order and thereby deny a significant number of the members of the RUC the right to defend themselves effectively. She herself had handled both the gun which the RUC at present used and that which was on order. There was no doubt that the American Ruger was much better.”

Monday, January 4, 2010

Fed Chief Edges Closer to Using Rates to Pop Bubbles

Posted on Monday, January 04, 2010 1:55:00 PM by Track9

ATLANTA -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke cracked the door open a bit more to the idea of raising interest rates if a new financial bubble emerges.


He also mounted a vigorous defense against critics who say it was the Fed's low-interest-rate policies over the past decade that caused the last housing bubble. Instead, he said, the problem was lax regulation, which permitted banks to issue a slew of exotic mortgages that households later had trouble paying. "We must be especially vigilant in ensuring that the recent experiences are not repeated," Mr. Bernanke said in a speech Sunday at the American Economic Association's annual meeting here. Better regulation is his first line of defense against future crises. But the Fed also needs to "remain open" to using the blunt tool of higher interest rates to avert or pop future asset bubbles, Mr. Bernanke said, particularly if other approaches aren't working.


(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Crime/Corruption; Front Page News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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It Ain't Askin' Too Much
Ya Know....
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Lets git 'er done: One-timeMonthly (Recurring) Make it a monthly!

Or mail checks to: FreeRepublic, LLC, PO Box 9771, Fresno, CA 93794

By 'future asset bubbles' he means our enormous debt and approaching insolvency no doubt. Pure double speak.

1 posted on Monday, January 04, 2010 1:55:01 PM by Track9
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To: Track9
unlikely to happen. If they’re not going to raise rates now, then they won’t ever



2 posted on Monday, January 04, 2010 1:56:56 PM by 4rcane
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To: Track9
This is just jawboning. The housing market would have MORE foreclosures with the Alt-A loans up for resets this year and next. NOT going to happen.



3 posted on Monday, January 04, 2010 1:59:45 PM by TruthConquers (Delendae sunt publicae scholae)
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To: Track9
So he’s planning on popping the next debt-for-foreign-products scheme (Ponzi scheme). That’s a good idea, but we’ll see if he would really do it.



4 posted on Monday, January 04, 2010 2:14:56 PM by familyop (cbt. engr. (cbt), NG, '89-' 96, Duncan Hunter or no-vote.)
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To: Track9
In other words, if you’re on the fence about your potential dream home, get off. Between Fed and the Chinese, rates are likely to explode.



5 posted on Monday, January 04, 2010 2:15:56 PM by montag813
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To: 4rcane
That seems to be the consensus. I know it would utterly sink them for the ‘10 elections but we’re so far in debt and it’s such a systemic issue I wonder how much longer this un-reality can last.



6 posted on Monday, January 04, 2010 2:23:46 PM by Track9 (The measure of a good education is knowing what truly sets you free)
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To: montag813
"rates are likely to explode."
That's my sense.. I don't see how they can keep this illusion going at will and it makes me nervous as I'm sure it does those at the Fed


7 posted on Monday, January 04, 2010 2:41:06 PM by Track9 (The measure of a good education is knowing what truly sets you free)
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To: Track9
So now we’re back to Greenspan’s jihad to deflate the dot-bomb equity bubble with the blunt axe of interest rates, which then crumped the whole economy.

Gotta love these clowns at the Fed. They’re just a veritable fountain of wisdom.



8 posted on Monday, January 04, 2010 2:53:34 PM by NVDave
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To: montag813
Rates are already going up on the 30-year fixed, and they’ll likely go higher when the Fed quits buying RMBS paper.



9 posted on Monday, January 04, 2010 2:55:04 PM by NVDave
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To: NVDave
You can see by Bernanke’s comments that he’s lost all touch with reality.



10 posted on Monday, January 04, 2010 2:57:16 PM by Track9 (The measure of a good education is knowing what truly sets you free)
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To: 4rcane
How can they not raise rates? Who is going to keep buying our debt?



11 posted on Monday, January 04, 2010 6:47:50 PM by Claud
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To: montag813
In other words, if you’re on the fence about your potential dream home, get off. Between Fed and the Chinese, rates are likely to explode.
Exploding interest rates will further depress prices, in an environment of already falling prices, very weak demand, oversupply of both new and resale homes already on the market, ongoing, year-over-year record foreclosures wtih no end in sight, and the weakest economy since the great depression.

Forget the dream home. Unless you're in one of the very few healthy regional economies remaining, it's a great time to rent, and to keep your options open as far as mobility. I can envision many more needing to go where the work is, above and beyond the new "Okies" from California and Michigan.

It's pretty bleak. Here comes the second leg down, imho.


12 posted on Monday, January 04, 2010 7:15:38 PM by RegulatorCountry
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To: Claud
who need to buy debt if they could just print the money they need. Raising debt only creates burden on the debter and US have tonnes of debt, so raising rate will only hurt themselves.



13 posted on Monday, January 04, 2010 7:19:14 PM by 4rcane
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To: 4rcane
I don’t know; isn’t it possible that they’ll have no choice except to raise rates? It appears to me the “marketplace” for the bond sales has effectively already started a rise in rates making it ever more expensive for the gov’t to borrow money. As that happens, Corporate bond issuers find themselves having to raise rates a sconch higher to be competitive with the gov’t bond issuances. I need do more research on this topic but I’m leaning toward the idea that probably sooner than later, the Fed will have to raise rates to stay even with the curve.

Buffett Posts Worst Stock Performance Against S&P 500 in Decade

By Andrew Frye

Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett recorded his worst performance against the stock market in a decade last year after committing $26 billion to a railroad takeover and lowering his expectations for investment returns.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc., the company Buffett has led as chairman for more than four decades, advanced 2.7 percent on the New York Stock Exchange in 2009, less than the 23 percent return in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. It was Berkshire’s worst showing since falling 20 percent in 1999, compared with a 20 percent gain in the index. Berkshire beat the index in 15 of the last 22 years.

Buffett, whose acquisitions and stock picks propelled Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire’s 30-fold increase in 20 years, is finding it harder to duplicate those returns as his company expands. The purchase of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp., announced in November, wasn’t “cheap,” Buffett said. The deal adds another business, along with luxury flights and manufactured housing, that suffers when the economy falters.

“This isn’t your father’s Berkshire,” said Jeff Matthews, the author of “Pilgrimage to Warren Buffett’s Omaha” and founder of the hedge fund Ram Partners LP. “It’s a protector of wealth and hopefully steady growth, but very dependent on the economy in ways that it hasn’t been in the past.”

Buffett, 79, won global renown as the “Oracle of Omaha” for stock picks, including Capital Cities/ABC Inc. in the 1980s and PetroChina Inc. in 2003, that produced multibillion-dollar gains. Berkshire doesn’t pay dividends or buy back stock, and Buffett’s main occupation as the company’s chief executive officer is deciding where to invest earnings from a portfolio of operating companies and securities.

Railroad Investment

The Burlington Northern deal, which Buffett calls an “all- in wager” on the U.S. economy, brings Berkshire 37,000 workers and a share of a regulated industry. Berkshire expects to own the railroad for the next century and get “a decent return,” Buffett said in a November interview with Charlie Rose on PBS.

“Reasonable return is good enough,” Buffett said in the interview. “You know, 50 years ago I was looking for spectacular returns, but I can’t get ‘em.”

Berkshire’s performance against the S&P 500 has slipped even according to Buffett’s favorite metric, book value per share. The measure of assets minus liabilities, which Buffett says most closely indicates a firm’s value, trailed the index three times in the 10 years through 2008 after lagging just three times in the previous 34. In the first nine months of 2009, Berkshire’s book value-per share gain trailed the S&P 500 again, 15 percent to 17 percent.

Outlook for Profit

Berkshire’s annual profits may return to growth this year, according to an estimate by Meyer Shields, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. Profit, which fell by more than half in 2008, may rise 51 percent to $7.55 billion, according to Shields. Berkshire reported record profit of $13.2 billion in 2007.

Buffett, the second-richest American, positioned Berkshire to weather the contraction in the U.S. economy by stockpiling $44 billion in cash. Starting in 2008, when corporate borrowing costs surged, he drew on that hoard to finance Goldman Sachs Group Inc., General Electric Co., Swiss Reinsurance Co. and the Mars Inc. takeover of chewing-gum maker Wm. Wrigley Jr. Co.

Those transactions are paying coupons that helped boost investment income in the first nine months of the year. Still, losses at Berkshire’s NetJets subsidiary and earnings declines at Clayton Homes contributed to a pretax profit plunge of more than half to $1.57 billion at Berkshire’s manufacturing, service and retailing businesses.

“Many of Berkshire’s businesses were perhaps hit worse” than companies in the S&P 500, said Guy Spier, a principal at hedge fund Aquamarine Funds LLC, which owns Berkshire shares. “They have a huge exposure to the housing market; NetJets has been impacted.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Andrew Frye in New York at afrye@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 4, 2010 00:00 EST

Funny watches

Bernanke Says Low Rates Didn’t Cause Housing Bubble

By Scott Lanman

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank’s low interest rates didn’t cause the past decade’s housing bubble and that better regulation would have been more effective in limiting the boom.

“The best response to the housing bubble would have been regulatory, rather than monetary,” Bernanke said today in remarks to the American Economic Association’s annual meeting in Atlanta. The Fed’s efforts to constrain the bubble were “too late or were insufficient,” which means that regulatory actions “must be better and smarter,” he said.

Bernanke said the Fed is working to improve its supervision of banks and has strengthened measures to protect consumers of mortgages and other financial products. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, who backs Bernanke for a second term, has called the Fed’s oversight of banks leading up to the crisis an “abysmal failure.” Dodd proposes stripping the Fed and other agencies of bank supervision powers and moving them to a new regulator.

Scholars such as Allan Meltzer, a historian of the central bank, have criticized the Fed for helping fuel the housing boom by keeping interest rates too low for too long. The bursting of the housing bubble led to the worst recession since the Great Depression and the loss of more than 7 million U.S. jobs.

Meltzer’s argument has been echoed by lawmakers including Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama, the senior Republican on the Banking Committee, who says Bernanke doesn’t deserve a second term as Fed chief.

‘Clear Signals’

Shelby, at a Dec. 17 vote on Bernanke’s nomination to a second four-year term starting next month, said the former Princeton University professor “missed clear signals” of a financial crisis when he was a Fed governor from 2002 until 2005.

“I strongly disapprove of some of the past deeds of the Federal Reserve while Ben Bernanke was a member and its chairman, and I lack confidence in what little planning for the future he has articulated,” Shelby said.

Bernanke didn’t discuss the outlook for the U.S. economy or Fed monetary policy in today’s speech or an accompanying slide presentation.

Increased use of variable-rate and interest-only mortgages, and the “associated decline of underwriting standards,” were more responsible for the bubble, Bernanke said in a speech at an economics conference.

He left the door open to using interest rates for preventing “dangerous buildups of financial risks” should regulatory changes fail to be made or turn out to be insufficient.

‘Supplementary Tool’

“We must remain open to using monetary policy as a supplementary tool for addressing those risks -- proceeding cautiously and always keeping in mind the inherent difficulties of that approach,” Bernanke said.

Responding to audience questions after the speech, Bernanke said he wasn’t “particularly concerned” about a possible loss of investor confidence in the U.S. financial system.

The dollar is still the “dominant” world reserve currency, and when financial conditions become more “worrisome,” investors see the currency as a safe haven and U.S. markets as the deepest and most liquid, he said.

Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said in a speech to the same conference that tight bank credit and caution among households and businesses may impede spending amid an improvement in financial markets. “Credit constraints are a key reason why I expect the strengthening in economic activity to be gradual and the drop in the unemployment rate to be slow,” he said.

Most of Speech

Bernanke devoted most of his speech to rebutting criticism that the Fed’s rate policy fueled the housing bubble. Monetary policy after the 2001 recession “appears to have been reasonably appropriate, at least in relation to” a formula based on the so-called “Taylor Rule.” In addition, Bernanke said Fed research shows the rise in housing prices had little to do with monetary policy or the broader economy.

John Taylor, a Stanford University economist and former Treasury undersecretary, created the Taylor Rule, a shorthand formula that suggests how a central bank should set interest rates if inflation or growth veers from goals.

Under former Chairman Alan Greenspan, the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate to 1.75 percent from 6.5 percent in 2001 and cut the rate to 1 percent in June 2003. The central bank left the federal funds rate, or overnight interbank lending rate, at 1 percent for a year before raising it at a “measured pace” of quarter-point increments over two years, from 2004 to 2006.

Fed Governor

Bernanke, 56, joined the Fed as a governor in 2002 and supported all of the interest-rate decisions under Greenspan before being appointed chairman in 2006. After the financial crisis struck, he cut the federal funds rate almost to zero in December 2008 from 5.25 percent in September 2007.

The standard Taylor Rule would have recommended that the Fed raise the rate to a range of 7 percent to 8 percent through the first three quarters of 2008, “a policy decision that probably would not have garnered much support among monetary specialists,” Bernanke said. A variation of the rule used by the Fed focused on anticipated rates of inflation, not actual rates, he said.

An index of U.S. home prices in October was down 11 percent from its peak in April 2007, the Federal Housing Finance Agency in Washington said last month. The federal tax credit for homebuyers has boosted demand, helping prices increase 0.6 percent in October from September, the first monthly increase since July.

One in four U.S. homeowners owe more on their mortgage than their house is worth, according to a November report by First American CoreLogic, a Santa Ana, California-based real estate research firm.

Foreclosure filings in 2009 probably reached a record for the second consecutive year with 3.9 million notices sent to homeowners in default, RealtyTrac Inc., the Irvine, California- based company, said last month.

To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: January 3, 2010 12:13 EST

Sunday, January 3, 2010

Pop Quiz Mr. President: Why Did You Fail?

Heritage Foundation ^ | 1/02/10

Posted on Sunday, January 03, 2010 3:50:08 PM by advance_copy

On New Year’s Eve, the White House received the preliminary assessment from federal agencies detailing the shortfalls of a terrorist bomber got on a plane bound for Detroit. The president admitted the government had more than enough information to justify keeping Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab off the aircraft. Obama concluded the system failed.

Here is what the president did not explain: This is the same system that stopped the London-based terrorist plot in 2006. On that occasion, intelligence connected the dots; counterterrorism agents penetrated the conspiracy; Homeland Security developed countermeasures; and with international partners the U.S. took down the terrorists before any bomber got near a plane.

Obama had the same system at his disposal as the last president. One built between 2002 and 2008 in the aftermath of the first wave of terrorist attacks– 9/11; the anthrax letters; and Richard Reid, the shoe bomber. A system that President Bush drove day-in and day-out, 24-7-365 to find and stop terrorist threats before they got off the ground. That’s why the 2006 plot and 26 other plots since 9/11 (21 under the Bush presidency) were found out and stopped. What Obama did not explain is how it worked for the last president, but failed for him.

Systems will never be perfect. The enemy keeps changing its tactics—innovating, improvising, adopting. There will also always be gaps, miscues, and mistakes. That’s the nature of how government works. There is no better antidote for these problems than leadership from the top. A leader that establishes the priority; sets the right tone; demands results; and then follows-up.


(Excerpt) Read more at blog.heritage.org ...


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TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: epicfail; fail; obama
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A terrorist from Nigeria, whose father warned U.S. Embassy officials weeks earlier about his son's radicalization, goes to Yemen for equipment and training from Al Qaida. He then takes his valid US visa and uses it to buy a plane ticket with cach, carries no luggage and boards a plane bound for Detroit.
How did that happen?

Well, under Obama, we have a government that reads terrorists their rights and calls their acts of war "man made disasters". That is change, certainly, from President Bush. But is not change you can believe in, unless you believe in the decline of your own country, like an idiot.


1 posted on Sunday, January 03, 2010 3:50:10 PM by advance_copy
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To: advance_copy
Our terrorist enemies have been greatly emboldened by this man weakness, cowardice, and absolute lack of leadership, and because of this they are going to cause us a lot of harm.
They have already made two terrorist attacks on our land since Obama became a President. In the first one they succeeded when terrorist Nidal Hasan killed and injured dozens of our brave troops in Fort Hood. In the second one, the terrorist attempt on the Detroit plane, they succeeded in overcoming all the security measures against terrorism despite the warning from the terrorist father two months ago regarding his and only the terrorist failure to detonate the bomb saved us from an absolute disaster. However the very scary fact remains that the terrorist were able to penetrate all the security measures against terrorism.

It up to all of us now to prevent our terrorist enemies from striking us again, we must be all very vigilant.


2 posted on Sunday, January 03, 2010 3:55:41 PM by jveritas (God Bless our brave troops)
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To: advance_copy
Obama failed because he believes Bush angered terrorists thus triggering more attacks, when in actuality Obama’s passiveness, weakness, appeasement and total ignorance of terrorist motives has served only to invite more attacks and more often.



3 posted on Sunday, January 03, 2010 3:59:26 PM by historyrepeatz
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To: advance_copy
Faulting the administration for a lack of leadership is not meant as a partisan criticism. Scoring political points won’t make us safe. Nor are finger-pointing or snipping and point-scoring much helpful.
Apologies to the Heritage Foundation which is usually right on in its observations but this pile of mush is nothing more than a reflex apology in advance to avoid the dreaded criticism of the P-word: partisanship. Nothing could more broadly misconceive how our system actually functions.

Our democracy works on partisanship. Politicians avoid stealing because they might get caught and they get caught because there is another party hoping to catch them and expose them to the voters so they can get power and have a chance to steal. So it is with running a bureaucracy. Bureaucrats and politicians, like normal people, prefer the easy way. It is the job of the opposition party to make the easy way more painful than the right way.

Bipartisanship is an illusion and one should never apologize for one's partisanship, it is akin to apologizing for one's ambition, one's wealth, one's talents, or one's patriotism. Partisanship is what makes the system go round.




4 posted on Sunday, January 03, 2010 4:24:38 PM by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: advance_copy
Because Obama and his administration and the lapdogs MSM act as though they are from the third world; ignorant and childish. Only deeply immature people with no real leadership act in such a manner. Their way of thinking has failed in the past and will fail again.



5 posted on Sunday, January 03, 2010 4:29:06 PM by freekitty (Give me back my conservative vote; then find me a real conservative to vote for)
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To: advance_copy
"What Obama did not explain is how it worked for the last president, but failed for him. "
It worked for ObaMao, too. It is totally abhorrent to patriotic Americans, but Barry and the democrat party actually WANT the US to fail. THAT IS THEIR PLAN! Black Liberation! Reparations! Many, many people are now catching on.


6 posted on Sunday, January 03, 2010 4:47:38 PM by matthew fuller (What we do in November will echo in eternity!)
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To: jveritas
"It up to all of us now to prevent our terrorist enemies from striking us again, we must be all very vigilant. "
How do we prevent the terrorist in the white house from striking us again?


7 posted on Sunday, January 03, 2010 4:51:20 PM by matthew fuller (What we do in November will echo in eternity!)
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To: jveritas
"They have already made two terrorist attacks on our land since Obama became a President. In the first one they succeeded when terrorist Nidal Hasan killed and injured dozens of our brave troops in Fort Hood."
And by the way, Nidal Hassan was a obvious, flaming terrorist for about five years under Connecticut-born President George W. Bush. Not that I mean to cut obamao any slack.


8 posted on Sunday, January 03, 2010 4:57:44 PM by matthew fuller (What we do in November will echo in eternity!)
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To: jveritas
> and only the terrorist failure to detonate the bomb saved us from an absolute disaster.

that, and the decisive actions of one very brave Dutchman who himself personally neutralized the threat without regard to his own personal safety.

According to Fox News, his name is Jasper Schuringa, and in my humble opinion he needs a medal. People like this should be remembered alongside Todd Beamer and the heroes of Flight 93.



9 posted on Sunday, January 03, 2010 5:24:04 PM by DieHard the Hunter (Is mise an ceann-cinnidh. Cha ghéill mi do dhuine. Fà g am bealach.)
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To: advance_copy
While I agree with this article, it is poorly written with atrocious grammar and punctuation. Is this really from the Heritage Foundation?? Maybe it was written by someone not familiar with English?



10 posted on Sunday, January 03, 2010 5:28:07 PM by Yaelle (thanking G-d for Rush Limbaugh's health)
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To: matthew fuller
Lots of people have not had personal experience with these Leftist thugs, so can’t image they want America to fail. Like the failure to believe there could be a 9/11, the failure of so many to understand what the goals and methods of these people are is at its core a failure of imagination.



11 posted on Sunday, January 03, 2010 5:30:23 PM by Seeing More Clearly Now
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To: advance_copy
Well, under Obama, we have a government that reads terrorists their rights
and prosecutes US military personnel for mistreating the little darlings from Al Qaeda.


12 posted on Sunday, January 03, 2010 5:32:14 PM by Rocky (Obama's ego: The "I's" have it.)
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To: advance_copy
Rush commanded it.



13 posted on Sunday, January 03, 2010 7:03:53 PM by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true)
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To: advance_copy
Why did the Kenyan fail? How about this from the NY Times from April 2009:

WASHINGTON — The Justice Department on Thursday made public detailed memos describing brutal interrogation techniques used by the Central Intelligence Agency.

The release of the documents came after a bitter debate that divided the Obama administration, with the C.I.A. opposing the Justice Department’s proposal to air the details of the agency’s long-secret program(s).

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/17/us/politics/17detain.html



14 posted on Sunday, January 03, 2010 8:13:59 PM by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
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To: advance_copy
“The enemy keeps changing its tactics”

Enemy? What enemy? Zero thinks his only enemies are on Fox News.



15 posted on Sunday, January 03, 2010 8:21:40 PM by Rennes Templar ("Though the wrong be often strong, God still rules this earthly throng")