Ten Bold Predictions and Big Trades for 2010
Minyanville ^ | 12/10/2009 | Ron Coby
Posted on Friday, December 11, 2009 11:11:32 AM by SeekAndFind
Nobody can see the future but I’ll take my best stab at it -- here’s hoping I’m not just sticking my foot in my mouth. Well, it wouldn’t be the first time.
The following predictions should hopefully be very controversial -- just like many of the predictions in my book Discover the Upside of Down.
All of my contrarian predictions are based on how I see things setting up the weekly charts in stocks, oil, gold, currencies, commodities, foreign markets, and bonds. I’ll also throw in some specific possible catalysts that could ignite these very powerful setups as they appear now.
For Grail ETF & Equity Investor subscribers I’ll be sending this out again in a couple weeks with Grail Charts attached showing past and present grail signals. Some of the current grail signals will confirm and others will contrast my predictions for now, but may confirm later.
Prediction Number One: The US Dollar won’t crash before it makes a giant double bottom on the weekly charts in 2010.
The weekly chart today look a lot like it did in March of 2008. The dollar hit lows in March 2008 then went sideways until it broke out in August 2008 at 75.60 -- when our indicator gave us a buy signal.
The dollar continued to rally all the way up to 91.47 in March 2009 before giving us a sell signal.
It seems the dollar is setting up now for a powerful short-covering rally accelerating into the first quarter of 2010 before it resumes its downtrend once again.
With both individual investors and professional traders raging bears, why wouldn’t the dollar rally?
Everyone and their mother is short the dollar, so we look for the unwinding of this Federal Reserve-created carry trade to take the dollar higher. (See also, The Decoder: Carry Trade)
Intermediate and long-term, by the way, I’m very bearish on the prospects of the US Dollar. In fact, I can see the dollar getting cut in half after the short covering rally ends. (See also, Ben: It's All Part of My Master Plan)
Prediction Number Two: Gold in 2010 will be looked upon like the 1999-2000 NASDAQ.
When Alan Greenspan flooded the economy with easy money in the late 1990s, the world went into a wild frenzy buying US technology stocks in 1999.
Gold and gold stocks will make a blow off explosive final run in 2010 from “helicopter Bens” flooding the globe with liquidity. The final move up in Gold and Gold stocks will look just like the NASDAQ run from October 1999 until the March 2000 blow off top.
Today’s weekly chart on Gold looks a lot like 1999 NASDAQ. Gold is also set up just like when Gold crossed 1000 in March of 2008, so Gold could have a similar nasty correction before that giant dot-com move up.
By October 2008 Gold got trounced to a low of 692 an ounce. We believe the next big correction in Gold will also prove to be a wonderful buying opportunity. The likely catalyst for a move down in Gold could be a powerful short-covering rally in the US Dollar as the dollar carry trade unwinds. When there’s 99% bears on the dollar there’s an inverse correlation with more than 90% bulls on the gold.
I have a whole chapter on gold in my John Wiley & Sons-published book as I’m very bullish on the long-term outlook for Gold.
Prediction Number Three: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) will have completed the right shoulder of a giant head-and-shoulders top on the weekly chart and start to head south.
Hopefully the DJIA will stop repeating the 1929-1932 sequence of event where 2008 was 1929 in slow motion and the 2009 rally was similar to the early-1930 rally.
After the 1930 rally, the DJIA collapsed 86% -- which lasted two more years. If history repeats, that puts us at around 5000 in 2010 and 1400 by January 2012, and it will feel like the end of the world-- just like the Mayans predicted. (See also, Finding the Upside of the Approaching Down Markets)
Prediction Number Four: Natural Gas will put in a historic bottom in 2010.
The weekly charts on natural gas looks like they did in December of 2007. Natural Gas made a run from $11.16 to $17.41 in July of 2008. Seasonally Natural Gas is setting up well right now for just such a repeat.
Nobody is bullish on Natural Gas as the fundamentals have never looked worse. Of course, that’s how bottoms are made.
Prediction Number Five: Oil will crash to $40 to $50 a barrel and then explode to over $100 in 2010.
As many of you know, oil has been on a sell on the Grail daily charts. (Subscribers to our ETF timing program know this as we put out a timely buy of the anti-oil ETF UltraShort DJ-AIG Crude Oil ProShares (SCO) when oil was around $80.00 a barrel.)
The catalyst for the move up will likely be fears of a coming surprise attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities by Israel in late 2010. (See also: ETF Picks: Consider This Diversified Partial Portfolio and Rising Oil Prices May Be the Forerunner to War)
Prediction Number Six: Bonds will become bombs in 2010.
Bonds are now entering a seasonally weak period and the story on bonds is very simple: supply, supply, supply.
The general public is dumping a record amount of money into bond funds in 2009, so from a contrarian’s perspective bonds should be bombs away in 2010. (See also, Get Out of Bonds -- Fast!)
Prediction Number Seven: NASDAQ starts the slow-motion process of retesting the March 2009 lows on its way to finishing its long secular bear market that started in 2000.
NASDAQ 2000 to 2009 has been a near-perfect repeat of the 1929-1939 DJIA. 2010 should start down for the final retest of the March 2009 lows before we start a new bull market like the DJIA did in 1942. Because information flows so swiftly and hot money floods the globe, NASDAQ could complete its retest in less time than the DJIA did from 1939 to 1942.
2010 NASDAQ should be equal to DJIA 1939 after the Dow rallied from 97 to 158 in 1938. The DJIA tested that low on April 30, 1942, and that preceded a new powerful secular bull market that lasted until 1966.
If NASDAQ continues to follow the 1929 to 1942 script perfectly, then NASDAQ will basically go nowhere in 2010. (See also, Something Bulls and Bears Can All Look Forward To)
Prediction Number Eight: Several selected commodities have giant bull market runs even as others crash and burn.
In the Softs category we have orange juice looking like a Buy on the weekly charts and I expect it will continue in 2010. Coffee and cotton also look like Buys on the weekly charts and should continue up as well.
You can’t trade commodities using the weekly charts or you’re just begging to lose all of your money. We don’t advise individual investors to trade commodities on their own. Investors will most likely lose their money because they don’t understand the power of leverage using futures.
The point is: These weekly charts look to be bottom-picking opportunities when the shorter-term charts confirm with a signal. Even with risk corridors tight and leverage well understood, you can wipe out in a lock up or down trade in commodities.
Grains, rice, and wheat are setting up beautifully on the charts.
Finally, lumber is another buy low opportunity sometime in 2010 after a long Depression-like collapse in the price of lumber.
Prediction Number Nine: China.com in 2010 will put in a high, then a severe reversal and crash will follow for another big leg down in Chinese stocks.
Everyone is once again bullish on China, but building giant cities that sit empty doesn’t sound bullish to us.
How about the unconfirmed reports of the Chinese government sending out refrigerators to farmers who don’t even have electricity? If the government is just marking up economic activity then it sure seems like a giant dot-com shorting opportunity.
This time it won’t be pets.com but instead China.com.
Prediction Number Ten: My final prediction. Those that sign up for the Grail ETF & Equity investor timing program will help put our tiny no name company (Coby Lamson) on the map.
So let me thank you in advance for that!
Friday, December 11, 2009
It’s not just because he is young. It’s that he’s ignorant of important principles and completely at odds with the fact that America is a superpower.
Cheerleader in Chief
Human Events ^ | 12/10/2009 | Wayne Simmons
Posted on Friday, December 11, 2009 10:17:08 AM by markomalley
At no time in recent American military history has a speech delivered by a President of the United States done so much to distance our nation from victory and put the men and woman of the military and intelligence agencies in harm’s way.
President Obama’s big Afghanistan speech caused nary a tremble in the polls. Before he spoke, most Americans didn’t support him. And after? His popularity continues to sink.
It was positively painful to watch Gen. Stanley McChrystal try to explain how you can win by not losing in his Tuesday congressional testimony. He’s doing the president’s bidding, not following a leader who has a clear idea of how to win a war.
It’s not only that President Obama is naïve and ignorant of history and the roles of our military and intelligence communities in world affairs. It’s mostly his inability to lead.
Leadership isn’t an intangible: it’s the ability to convince and inspire people to follow. His legislative successes aren’t proof that he’s a leader. To the contrary: Obama has pronounced big ideas that were already on the liberals’ agenda page. He merely turned them loose and then failed to lead them in the particulars -- the practicabilities and costs -- of the ideas.
On everything from the phony “stimulus” package to socialist health care, Obama is a cheerleader, not a real leader. It’s not just because he is young. It’s that he’s ignorant of important principles and completely at odds with the fact that America is a superpower.
Just consider his Afghanistan speech in the context of his June Cairo speech. Obama is reaching out his open hand to the Islamic radicals in disregard of how many times they slap it away.
In 1899 at the age of 25, Winston Churchill wrote some of the most profound paragraphs of his life.
“How dreadful are the curses which Mohammedanism lays on its votaries! Besides the fanatical frenzy, which is as dangerous in a man as hydrophobia in a dog, there is this fearful fatalistic apathy. The effects are apparent in many countries. Improvident habits, slovenly systems of agriculture, sluggish methods of commerce, and insecurity of property exist wherever the followers of the Prophet rule or live. A degraded sensualism deprives this life of its grace and refinement; the next of its dignity and sanctity. The fact that in Mohammedan law every woman must belong to some man as his absolute property, either as a child, a wife, or a concubine, must delay the final extinction of slavery until the faith of Islam has ceased to be a great power among men.
Individual Moslems may show splendid qualities. Thousands become the brave and loyal soldiers of the Queen; all know how to die; but the influence of the religion paralyses the social development of those who follow it. No stronger retrograde force exists in the world. Far from being moribund, Mohammedanism is a militant and proselytizing faith. It has already spread throughout Central Africa, raising fearless warriors at every step; and were it not that Christianity is sheltered in the strong arms of science, the science against which it had vainly struggled, the civilisation of modern Europe might fall, as fell the civilisation of ancient Rome.”
~ The River War: An Historical Account of the Reconquest of the Soudan (1899), Volume II pp. 248-250.
At such a young age Churchill’s understanding of Islam and its goal of supreme world dominance is uncanny.
The leaders of “the greatest generation,” the generation that sacrificed hundreds of thousands of American men and women in World War II, understood the importance of achieving victory and of supporting the men and women sent to the front lines every day to protect our nation and the world from tyranny. There were no political considerations to determine how a President “felt” before ordering our nation to war against its enemies. When we were attacked on December 7, 1941, we responded with all of the might a great nation could muster.
Today we are in a Global War on Terror. The United States was attacked by Islamic terrorist’s on September 11, 2001, resulting in the deaths of almost 3,000 innocent men, women and children. One of America’s great war time leaders, President George W. Bush, along with a war time Secretary of Defense, Donald H. Rumsfeld, responded. Their policies kept America safe for 8 years and liberated millions. Today, Barack Obama, giving a pallid imitation of a President, has chosen to appease our enemies around the world in his misguided effort to mollify those that would kill us.
The touchy, feely, feminization attitude that permeates American society has found its way to our military decision makers. Our institutions of war with long rich histories of producing courageous war fighters are now producing leaders that are being trained to better understand and be sensitive to our enemies feelings and concerns rather than how to defeat and destroy them.
There are very few leaders today who could have made the wrenching decisions to bomb Dresden, Tokyo or Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Those decisions were instrumental in ending World War II and saved millions of American lives. The deaths of civilians as collateral damage while horrible and unfortunate are an intimate and inextricable part of war. Historians will continue to debate the number of lives that would have been saved had the Atomic bomb been ready and used earlier. How many American fathers, husbands, son’s and brothers would have survived had the war been shortened?
Afghanistan is arguably one of the most desolate, insignificant 4th world countries on our planet. It is not Kazakhstan, a country flush with gas and oil, diamonds and gold. Other than Kabul, it is a nation divided by tribes and regions, controlled by warlords. The Western dreams of a centralized government for Afghanistan are just that, dreams. After 9/11 the U.S. conquered Afghanistan killing or capturing most of those responsible for the attack on America and driving out the Taliban. Then we abandoned her like a West African aids victim. If America did not learn from the repercussions of abandonment and is not diligent and committed once again in its efforts to destroy the Islamic terrorists in Afghanistan, then all of those who have died in Afghanistan and continue to die will die in vain.
At no time in U.S. history has an American president ever half heartedly expanded a war only to advise his enemy that the expansion is temporary. Obama’s decision to provide 30,000 more troops to help defeat the terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan is the correct decision if we expect to prevent safe haven for the terrorists. However, telegraphing his intentions to withdraw our troops in 18 months is misguided and will prove deadly to our soldiers and marines as well as our intelligence experts. There has never been, nor will there ever be, a successful military campaign that did not depend upon reliable, actionable intelligence. I can tell you from personal experience that it is virtually impossible to devise a human intelligence network, humint, when assets are convinced that there is no future or reason for them to cooperate with you.
The message to the warlords in the tribal regions of Afghanistan should be simple and clear. We are leaving. There will be no more American bloodshed in Afghanistan. If you want our continued financial assistance or our friendship, then you must not allow safe harbor to the enemies of the United States. If you do, there will be devastating consequences. There will be Dresden. And we must deliver.
Human Events ^ | 12/10/2009 | Wayne Simmons
Posted on Friday, December 11, 2009 10:17:08 AM by markomalley
At no time in recent American military history has a speech delivered by a President of the United States done so much to distance our nation from victory and put the men and woman of the military and intelligence agencies in harm’s way.
President Obama’s big Afghanistan speech caused nary a tremble in the polls. Before he spoke, most Americans didn’t support him. And after? His popularity continues to sink.
It was positively painful to watch Gen. Stanley McChrystal try to explain how you can win by not losing in his Tuesday congressional testimony. He’s doing the president’s bidding, not following a leader who has a clear idea of how to win a war.
It’s not only that President Obama is naïve and ignorant of history and the roles of our military and intelligence communities in world affairs. It’s mostly his inability to lead.
Leadership isn’t an intangible: it’s the ability to convince and inspire people to follow. His legislative successes aren’t proof that he’s a leader. To the contrary: Obama has pronounced big ideas that were already on the liberals’ agenda page. He merely turned them loose and then failed to lead them in the particulars -- the practicabilities and costs -- of the ideas.
On everything from the phony “stimulus” package to socialist health care, Obama is a cheerleader, not a real leader. It’s not just because he is young. It’s that he’s ignorant of important principles and completely at odds with the fact that America is a superpower.
Just consider his Afghanistan speech in the context of his June Cairo speech. Obama is reaching out his open hand to the Islamic radicals in disregard of how many times they slap it away.
In 1899 at the age of 25, Winston Churchill wrote some of the most profound paragraphs of his life.
“How dreadful are the curses which Mohammedanism lays on its votaries! Besides the fanatical frenzy, which is as dangerous in a man as hydrophobia in a dog, there is this fearful fatalistic apathy. The effects are apparent in many countries. Improvident habits, slovenly systems of agriculture, sluggish methods of commerce, and insecurity of property exist wherever the followers of the Prophet rule or live. A degraded sensualism deprives this life of its grace and refinement; the next of its dignity and sanctity. The fact that in Mohammedan law every woman must belong to some man as his absolute property, either as a child, a wife, or a concubine, must delay the final extinction of slavery until the faith of Islam has ceased to be a great power among men.
Individual Moslems may show splendid qualities. Thousands become the brave and loyal soldiers of the Queen; all know how to die; but the influence of the religion paralyses the social development of those who follow it. No stronger retrograde force exists in the world. Far from being moribund, Mohammedanism is a militant and proselytizing faith. It has already spread throughout Central Africa, raising fearless warriors at every step; and were it not that Christianity is sheltered in the strong arms of science, the science against which it had vainly struggled, the civilisation of modern Europe might fall, as fell the civilisation of ancient Rome.”
~ The River War: An Historical Account of the Reconquest of the Soudan (1899), Volume II pp. 248-250.
At such a young age Churchill’s understanding of Islam and its goal of supreme world dominance is uncanny.
The leaders of “the greatest generation,” the generation that sacrificed hundreds of thousands of American men and women in World War II, understood the importance of achieving victory and of supporting the men and women sent to the front lines every day to protect our nation and the world from tyranny. There were no political considerations to determine how a President “felt” before ordering our nation to war against its enemies. When we were attacked on December 7, 1941, we responded with all of the might a great nation could muster.
Today we are in a Global War on Terror. The United States was attacked by Islamic terrorist’s on September 11, 2001, resulting in the deaths of almost 3,000 innocent men, women and children. One of America’s great war time leaders, President George W. Bush, along with a war time Secretary of Defense, Donald H. Rumsfeld, responded. Their policies kept America safe for 8 years and liberated millions. Today, Barack Obama, giving a pallid imitation of a President, has chosen to appease our enemies around the world in his misguided effort to mollify those that would kill us.
The touchy, feely, feminization attitude that permeates American society has found its way to our military decision makers. Our institutions of war with long rich histories of producing courageous war fighters are now producing leaders that are being trained to better understand and be sensitive to our enemies feelings and concerns rather than how to defeat and destroy them.
There are very few leaders today who could have made the wrenching decisions to bomb Dresden, Tokyo or Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Those decisions were instrumental in ending World War II and saved millions of American lives. The deaths of civilians as collateral damage while horrible and unfortunate are an intimate and inextricable part of war. Historians will continue to debate the number of lives that would have been saved had the Atomic bomb been ready and used earlier. How many American fathers, husbands, son’s and brothers would have survived had the war been shortened?
Afghanistan is arguably one of the most desolate, insignificant 4th world countries on our planet. It is not Kazakhstan, a country flush with gas and oil, diamonds and gold. Other than Kabul, it is a nation divided by tribes and regions, controlled by warlords. The Western dreams of a centralized government for Afghanistan are just that, dreams. After 9/11 the U.S. conquered Afghanistan killing or capturing most of those responsible for the attack on America and driving out the Taliban. Then we abandoned her like a West African aids victim. If America did not learn from the repercussions of abandonment and is not diligent and committed once again in its efforts to destroy the Islamic terrorists in Afghanistan, then all of those who have died in Afghanistan and continue to die will die in vain.
At no time in U.S. history has an American president ever half heartedly expanded a war only to advise his enemy that the expansion is temporary. Obama’s decision to provide 30,000 more troops to help defeat the terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan is the correct decision if we expect to prevent safe haven for the terrorists. However, telegraphing his intentions to withdraw our troops in 18 months is misguided and will prove deadly to our soldiers and marines as well as our intelligence experts. There has never been, nor will there ever be, a successful military campaign that did not depend upon reliable, actionable intelligence. I can tell you from personal experience that it is virtually impossible to devise a human intelligence network, humint, when assets are convinced that there is no future or reason for them to cooperate with you.
The message to the warlords in the tribal regions of Afghanistan should be simple and clear. We are leaving. There will be no more American bloodshed in Afghanistan. If you want our continued financial assistance or our friendship, then you must not allow safe harbor to the enemies of the United States. If you do, there will be devastating consequences. There will be Dresden. And we must deliver.
Nigerians got scammed? Awesome!
Death for 6 Chinese traders faking 'Made in India' tags
The Times of India ^ | 10th December 2009 | Saibal Dasgupta
Posted on Friday, December 11, 2009 10:14:18 AM by cold start
BEIJING: Six Chinese traders who exported fake anti-malaria drugs to Nigeria under the "Made in India" label have been sentenced to death, the ministry of commerce in Beijing has said. But the ministry gave no further details about the identity of the traders.
The issue became a major controversy last June when Nigeria's National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control said it had seized a large consignment of spurious anti-malaria drugs worth $210,000. The drugs came from China and were distributed in Nigeria tagged "Made in India".
The Chinese government apologized to Nigeria and promised a thorough investigation and punishment of those involved. But Chinese officials insisted India should share responsibility, as some Indians have also been found exporting fake drugs to Nigeria.
Officials of the Indian Commerce Ministry said they had had received complaints about Chinese firms offloading counterfeit drugs as Indian products in South Africa, Ghana, Ivory Coast and other African countries.
Media reports quoted Paul Orhii, Director-General of Nigeria’s National Agency for Food, Drug Administration and Control, describing the action as a case of “tremendous progress” in the campaign against fake and counterfeit drugs.
"Those people in China are facing death penalty. The India parliament also passed a law for manufacturing of counterfeit drugs. It will be difficult for Nigerian drug traffickers to go to India. In China, it is even worst the counterfeiter will be facing death penalty,” he was quoted as saying at a conference in his country.
Between 2001 and 2007, the Nigerian government banned about 30 Indian and Chinese pharmaceutical companies for exporting fake drugs. But sections of the Indian industry claimed they have suffered loss of reputation because of malpractices of Chinese exporters using the “Made in India” label to cover up their misdeeds.
The Times of India ^ | 10th December 2009 | Saibal Dasgupta
Posted on Friday, December 11, 2009 10:14:18 AM by cold start
BEIJING: Six Chinese traders who exported fake anti-malaria drugs to Nigeria under the "Made in India" label have been sentenced to death, the ministry of commerce in Beijing has said. But the ministry gave no further details about the identity of the traders.
The issue became a major controversy last June when Nigeria's National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control said it had seized a large consignment of spurious anti-malaria drugs worth $210,000. The drugs came from China and were distributed in Nigeria tagged "Made in India".
The Chinese government apologized to Nigeria and promised a thorough investigation and punishment of those involved. But Chinese officials insisted India should share responsibility, as some Indians have also been found exporting fake drugs to Nigeria.
Officials of the Indian Commerce Ministry said they had had received complaints about Chinese firms offloading counterfeit drugs as Indian products in South Africa, Ghana, Ivory Coast and other African countries.
Media reports quoted Paul Orhii, Director-General of Nigeria’s National Agency for Food, Drug Administration and Control, describing the action as a case of “tremendous progress” in the campaign against fake and counterfeit drugs.
"Those people in China are facing death penalty. The India parliament also passed a law for manufacturing of counterfeit drugs. It will be difficult for Nigerian drug traffickers to go to India. In China, it is even worst the counterfeiter will be facing death penalty,” he was quoted as saying at a conference in his country.
Between 2001 and 2007, the Nigerian government banned about 30 Indian and Chinese pharmaceutical companies for exporting fake drugs. But sections of the Indian industry claimed they have suffered loss of reputation because of malpractices of Chinese exporters using the “Made in India” label to cover up their misdeeds.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Sarah Palin: Copenhagen, Cap-and-Trade Will Kill the Economy
Daily analysis of the business of the environment by The Wall Street Journal.
* December 9, 2009, 11:26 AM ET
By Keith Johnson
In case you missed it, former Alaska governor Sarah Palin called for President Obama to “boycott Copenhagen” in an op-ed in the Washington Post today. The piece has, predictably, got the blogosphere abuzz—both for what she says and the fact that she got to say it all.
Associated Press
Wordsmith
First, Gov. Palin’s piece takes aim at the Copenhagen climate talks by linking them to the “Climategate” email scandal, which she says undermines the science behind the meeting in the first place. Then she goes back to familiar ground, arguing that the Obama administration’s plan to curb greenhouse-gas emissions will poleax the U.S. economy.
The reactions have been fast and furious. The Huffington Post wonders why Gov. Palin got more space from the WaPo; she did another op-ed critical of the administration’s plans recently. That wraps into wider criticism of the Washington Post, where George Will regularly infuriates environmentalists with his dismissals of global warming. More on that fallout over at the Atlantic Wire.
Gov. Palin’s piece comes in the middle of pushback against the whole idea that the world even needs to reach agreement to curb emissions at Copenhagen—and that the U.S. needs to play a leading role.
National Review, for instance, sets out to slay the dragon, as it were: “More maddening, this tax-and-spend treaty is a costly solution to an imaginary problem. So-called ‘global warming’ threatens Earth about as urgently as does the Loch Ness Monster.”
What about Gov. Palin’s arguments? Basically, she says that while climate change exists—she’s seen it in Alaska—the potential harm pales in comparison to what could be wrought by new U.S. energy policies: “We can say, however, that any potential benefits of proposed emissions reduction policies are far outweighed by their economic costs. And those costs are real.”
That’s actually a very contentious point: Just what are the benefits of limiting the damage from climate change?
Academics know there is a price to be paid for curbing carbon emissions and making energy more expensive—that’s practically the whole idea. The trick is figuring out exactly how that compares to the price to be paid from future environmental damages.
Plenty of folks, most notably Lord Nicholas Stern, argue that the “costs of inaction” far outweigh the costs of tackling climate change. Other studies agree—arguing that U.S. climate legislation offers $2 in benefits for every $1 of costs.
And that’s just benefits from avoiding the worst of climate change. A cleaner energy sector could also help avoid the estimated $120 billion a year that dirty energy costs the country in health and other environmental problems.
In short, there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of Copenhagen’s ability to address the climate problem—such as the inability to verify exactly what the developing world says it will do to curb emissions.
But those reasons don’t seem to include the economics of cleaner energy.
* December 9, 2009, 11:26 AM ET
By Keith Johnson
In case you missed it, former Alaska governor Sarah Palin called for President Obama to “boycott Copenhagen” in an op-ed in the Washington Post today. The piece has, predictably, got the blogosphere abuzz—both for what she says and the fact that she got to say it all.
Associated Press
Wordsmith
First, Gov. Palin’s piece takes aim at the Copenhagen climate talks by linking them to the “Climategate” email scandal, which she says undermines the science behind the meeting in the first place. Then she goes back to familiar ground, arguing that the Obama administration’s plan to curb greenhouse-gas emissions will poleax the U.S. economy.
The reactions have been fast and furious. The Huffington Post wonders why Gov. Palin got more space from the WaPo; she did another op-ed critical of the administration’s plans recently. That wraps into wider criticism of the Washington Post, where George Will regularly infuriates environmentalists with his dismissals of global warming. More on that fallout over at the Atlantic Wire.
Gov. Palin’s piece comes in the middle of pushback against the whole idea that the world even needs to reach agreement to curb emissions at Copenhagen—and that the U.S. needs to play a leading role.
National Review, for instance, sets out to slay the dragon, as it were: “More maddening, this tax-and-spend treaty is a costly solution to an imaginary problem. So-called ‘global warming’ threatens Earth about as urgently as does the Loch Ness Monster.”
What about Gov. Palin’s arguments? Basically, she says that while climate change exists—she’s seen it in Alaska—the potential harm pales in comparison to what could be wrought by new U.S. energy policies: “We can say, however, that any potential benefits of proposed emissions reduction policies are far outweighed by their economic costs. And those costs are real.”
That’s actually a very contentious point: Just what are the benefits of limiting the damage from climate change?
Academics know there is a price to be paid for curbing carbon emissions and making energy more expensive—that’s practically the whole idea. The trick is figuring out exactly how that compares to the price to be paid from future environmental damages.
Plenty of folks, most notably Lord Nicholas Stern, argue that the “costs of inaction” far outweigh the costs of tackling climate change. Other studies agree—arguing that U.S. climate legislation offers $2 in benefits for every $1 of costs.
And that’s just benefits from avoiding the worst of climate change. A cleaner energy sector could also help avoid the estimated $120 billion a year that dirty energy costs the country in health and other environmental problems.
In short, there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of Copenhagen’s ability to address the climate problem—such as the inability to verify exactly what the developing world says it will do to curb emissions.
But those reasons don’t seem to include the economics of cleaner energy.
Penny wise, pound foolish?
Business News
1,000 UK bankers hit exits over pay
By PAUL THARP
Last updated: 4:14 AM December 7, 2009
In a London preview of Wall Street's bonus nightmare, more than 1,000 investment bankers have quit Royal Bank of Scotland to work at rivals due to curbs on their paychecks, according to people familiar with the situation.
Wall Street banks fear top talent would flee en masse for greener pastures if Uncle Sam's pay czar, Ken Feinberg, and Congress try to put more ceilings on bonuses and pay at financial firms.
In the UK, the rules are modeled after US actions to curb pay at firms bailed out by the government.
RBS will soon be about 84-percent owned by the British government due to recent bailouts.
The protest exodus at RBS -- first reported on the Web edition of the Times of London -- involved less than 5 percent of its banking professionals.
Some headhunters see more bankers jumping ship in the coming year as the controversy deepens over pay freezes and curbs.
Barclays Capital, Nomura and Société Générale are among the banks poaching RBS talent, offering hiring bonuses of up to $1.2 million, the report said.
Barclays said it would double 2009 bonuses of RBS, retroactive to June, sources said.
RBS hopes to stem defections by having its board boost its bonus pool by about 50 percent to $1.5 billion.
1,000 UK bankers hit exits over pay
By PAUL THARP
Last updated: 4:14 AM December 7, 2009
In a London preview of Wall Street's bonus nightmare, more than 1,000 investment bankers have quit Royal Bank of Scotland to work at rivals due to curbs on their paychecks, according to people familiar with the situation.
Wall Street banks fear top talent would flee en masse for greener pastures if Uncle Sam's pay czar, Ken Feinberg, and Congress try to put more ceilings on bonuses and pay at financial firms.
In the UK, the rules are modeled after US actions to curb pay at firms bailed out by the government.
RBS will soon be about 84-percent owned by the British government due to recent bailouts.
The protest exodus at RBS -- first reported on the Web edition of the Times of London -- involved less than 5 percent of its banking professionals.
Some headhunters see more bankers jumping ship in the coming year as the controversy deepens over pay freezes and curbs.
Barclays Capital, Nomura and Société Générale are among the banks poaching RBS talent, offering hiring bonuses of up to $1.2 million, the report said.
Barclays said it would double 2009 bonuses of RBS, retroactive to June, sources said.
RBS hopes to stem defections by having its board boost its bonus pool by about 50 percent to $1.5 billion.
Hedge Fund Titan John Paulson Bullish On Bonds And Equities, Inflation Concerns Remain
The Market Oracle ^ | 12-9-2009 | Trade _Mark
Posted on Thursday, December 10, 2009 9:08:42 AM by blam
Hedge Fund Titan John Paulson Bullish On Bonds And Equities, Inflation Concerns Remain
Stock-Markets / Investing 2010
Dec 09, 2009 - 09:59 AM
By: Trader_Mark
John Paulson... super bull? Goodness. To some degree I find "whale watching" a bit overrated, but after being the most obvious winner of the mortgage meltdown, and then piling into gold ahead of a huge run ... Paulson's moves are watched by the investment world very closely.
One of the hottest investors on the planet is now chock full of bonds - especially the moral hazard kind (i.e. backstopped by US government). And has his highest net long exposure in "a long time".
No one will be correct forever, but it does make you stand notice...especially since his success is based on actually making big macro calls rather than building an army of computers co-located as close as possible to a stock exchange, so he can surge ahead of your order by 4/1000ths of a second to make mad money. Via Reuters:
Billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson said on Tuesday he still sees compelling long-term returns in equities even after their sharp run-up this year, while holding no short positions in the credit markets.
"Today our net long exposure is perhaps the highest it has ever been in our portfolio," Paulson said during a luncheon presentation at the Japan Society.
Paulson, who has run his own hedge fund since 1994, has become a star investor after correctly predicting the sub-prime credit crisis in 2007. That reaped him a $3 billion profit.
[snip]
* Even as credit and equity markets looked attractive, he did reiterate his concerns that over the long-term inflation will be a problem because the government's mountain of stimulus cash will be difficult, politically, to withdraw from the economy.
* "Therefore we are concerned about high rates of inflation in the future. As an investor I became very concerned about having my assets denominated in U.S. dollars," he said.
[snip]
Posted on Thursday, December 10, 2009 9:08:42 AM by blam
Hedge Fund Titan John Paulson Bullish On Bonds And Equities, Inflation Concerns Remain
Stock-Markets / Investing 2010
Dec 09, 2009 - 09:59 AM
By: Trader_Mark
John Paulson... super bull? Goodness. To some degree I find "whale watching" a bit overrated, but after being the most obvious winner of the mortgage meltdown, and then piling into gold ahead of a huge run ... Paulson's moves are watched by the investment world very closely.
One of the hottest investors on the planet is now chock full of bonds - especially the moral hazard kind (i.e. backstopped by US government). And has his highest net long exposure in "a long time".
No one will be correct forever, but it does make you stand notice...especially since his success is based on actually making big macro calls rather than building an army of computers co-located as close as possible to a stock exchange, so he can surge ahead of your order by 4/1000ths of a second to make mad money. Via Reuters:
Billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson said on Tuesday he still sees compelling long-term returns in equities even after their sharp run-up this year, while holding no short positions in the credit markets.
"Today our net long exposure is perhaps the highest it has ever been in our portfolio," Paulson said during a luncheon presentation at the Japan Society.
Paulson, who has run his own hedge fund since 1994, has become a star investor after correctly predicting the sub-prime credit crisis in 2007. That reaped him a $3 billion profit.
[snip]
* Even as credit and equity markets looked attractive, he did reiterate his concerns that over the long-term inflation will be a problem because the government's mountain of stimulus cash will be difficult, politically, to withdraw from the economy.
* "Therefore we are concerned about high rates of inflation in the future. As an investor I became very concerned about having my assets denominated in U.S. dollars," he said.
[snip]
Nobel peace prize: Norwegians incensed over Barack Obama's snubs
* Gwladys Fouché and Ewen MacAskill
* guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 9 December 2009 20.00 GMT
* Article history
Barack Obama speaks in the White House rose garden about winning the Nobel peace prize. The president will donate the $1.4m prize money to charity.
Barack Obama has turned down a lunch invitation from the King of Norway. Photograph: Win McNamee/Getty
Barack Obama's trip to Oslo to pick up his Nobel peace award is in danger of being overshadowed by a row over the cancellation of a series of events normally attended by the prizewinner.
Norwegians are incensed over what they view as his shabby response to the prize by cutting short his visit.
The White House has cancelled many of the events peace prize laureates traditionally submit to, including a dinner with the Norwegian Nobel committee, a press conference, a television interview, appearances at a children's event promoting peace and a music concert, as well as a visit to an exhibition in his honour at the Nobel peace centre.
He has also turned down a lunch invitation from the King of Norway.
According to a poll published by the daily tabloid VG, 44% of Norwegians believe it was rude of Obama to cancel his scheduled lunch with King Harald, with only 34% saying they believe it was acceptable.
"Of all the things he is cancelling, I think the worst is cancelling the lunch with the king," said Siv Jensen, the leader of the largest party in opposition, the populist Progress party. "This is a central part of our government system. He should respect the monarchy," she told VG.
The Norwegian Nobel committee, which awards the peace prize, dismissed the criticism. "We always knew that there were too many events in the programme. Obama has to govern the US and we were told early on that he could not commit to all of them," said Geir Lundestad, secretary of the committee.
Although Obama will not lunch with King Harald, he will see him on a visit to the royal palace.
Peace activists opposed to the Afghanistan war are planning a 5,000-strong protest in Oslo.
The visit will test Obama's rhetorical skills as he seeks to reconcile acceptance of the Nobel peace prize with sending an extra 30,000 US troops to Afghanistan.
White House officials said that Obama, who was planning to work on the final draft of his speech on his flight from Washington to Oslo, would directly address the issue of the irony of being awarded the peace prize while escalating the war.
The Nobel peace committee has been criticised for awarding Obama the prize before he has any major accomplishments in international relations.
A White House official said that it was not necessarily an award that Obama would have given himself.
* guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 9 December 2009 20.00 GMT
* Article history
Barack Obama speaks in the White House rose garden about winning the Nobel peace prize. The president will donate the $1.4m prize money to charity.
Barack Obama has turned down a lunch invitation from the King of Norway. Photograph: Win McNamee/Getty
Barack Obama's trip to Oslo to pick up his Nobel peace award is in danger of being overshadowed by a row over the cancellation of a series of events normally attended by the prizewinner.
Norwegians are incensed over what they view as his shabby response to the prize by cutting short his visit.
The White House has cancelled many of the events peace prize laureates traditionally submit to, including a dinner with the Norwegian Nobel committee, a press conference, a television interview, appearances at a children's event promoting peace and a music concert, as well as a visit to an exhibition in his honour at the Nobel peace centre.
He has also turned down a lunch invitation from the King of Norway.
According to a poll published by the daily tabloid VG, 44% of Norwegians believe it was rude of Obama to cancel his scheduled lunch with King Harald, with only 34% saying they believe it was acceptable.
"Of all the things he is cancelling, I think the worst is cancelling the lunch with the king," said Siv Jensen, the leader of the largest party in opposition, the populist Progress party. "This is a central part of our government system. He should respect the monarchy," she told VG.
The Norwegian Nobel committee, which awards the peace prize, dismissed the criticism. "We always knew that there were too many events in the programme. Obama has to govern the US and we were told early on that he could not commit to all of them," said Geir Lundestad, secretary of the committee.
Although Obama will not lunch with King Harald, he will see him on a visit to the royal palace.
Peace activists opposed to the Afghanistan war are planning a 5,000-strong protest in Oslo.
The visit will test Obama's rhetorical skills as he seeks to reconcile acceptance of the Nobel peace prize with sending an extra 30,000 US troops to Afghanistan.
White House officials said that Obama, who was planning to work on the final draft of his speech on his flight from Washington to Oslo, would directly address the issue of the irony of being awarded the peace prize while escalating the war.
The Nobel peace committee has been criticised for awarding Obama the prize before he has any major accomplishments in international relations.
A White House official said that it was not necessarily an award that Obama would have given himself.
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
The Sultan Tiger Woods and his Harem
December 7, 2009 | Marc Pascal
Posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:52:09 AM by 2ndDivisionVet
33-year-old professional golfer extraordinaire appears to have amassed a collection of trollops, hussies, harlots, sluts, and other assorted mistresses and bimbos in addition to his main squeeze, the 29-year-old blond, former Swedish model Elin Nordegren to whom he was publicly married in 2004. Too much money, narcissism, ego, sex-drive, and far too many willing and perhaps conniving young women interested in short-term, shallow, fantasy affairs have created the celebrity sports/entertainment scandal of the month. The coverage may keep going for months to come as it has proven to be great fodder for our shallow 24/7 info-entertainment business.
Tiger is a world-wide celebrity of mixed-race origin (Black & Asian) who has shown a strong sexual preference for natural and dyed blond women of Caucasian descent. Perhaps at his tender age, he didn’t get all his philandering out of his system and he should have waited until he was over 40 to get married. Alternatively he just exemplifies the “natural proclivities” in human nature when completely unrestrained by financial, social, technological, or ethical considerations. His biggest alleged deception under our outdated moral codes was to his spouse and children – but then they are not that financially strained by his escapades as would be most families.
Did any of Tiger’s mistresses really think they were the “only” one, that he wasn’t already married, and that it was highly unlikely he would voluntarily leave his spouse for any of them? Most professional prostitutes jealously guard their clients’ privacy because they have profitable businesses to preserve. Instead we have most of these bimbos eagerly giving bedroom sex reports, making public statements with attorneys, and arranging photo shoots. Their interests in Tiger might have been temporary and financial – as calculated means to get their 15 minutes or more of fame in their rather useless lives. Perhaps some of them are collecting celebrity lovers just for the bragging rights and for some potential future financial remuneration.
Take away Tiger’s golf skills and money, and he’d be just another working stiff with a pleasant smile easily ignored by many women.
One could also conjecture that Mrs. Woods might have arranged some of these liaisons in order to get her husband in a bad situation to justify a very good divorce for her own best financial interests. If so, both she and Tiger got carried away in the process.
Some readers may criticize me for taking a harsh view of the women involved and left Tiger and his oversized putter essentially off the hook. That is not true, but I have been listing some of the arguments my own spouse raised in a recent discussion.
My wife of almost 12 years and 10 years my junior is a very attractive Colombiana from South America. Her take on male-female relations is quite different from the foolishly myopic views of many American women. She puts equal or more blame on the women in these affairs. Many Latinas view men as pretty stupid and weak when it comes to sexual temptation and they acknowledge the reality that their fellow females (regardless of race, creed, skin and hair color, age, nationality, and marital status) can be quite determined and calculating when it comes to using men for their own purposes. She also wisely told me that I’m too poor, cheap, old and boring to waste time and money on any other women – she knows me better than I do.
Like all great deceptions of the past 20 years, occurring in realms of business, politics and sports, many of them are finally seeing the light of day. These public revelations have upset, angered and disappointed many people with our all-too-human foibles and continuous moral failings also know as “sins.” We continue to foolishly extend many virtues to our leaders in sports and politics that deep down we probably realize they may not actually possess (i.e. fidelity, honesty) when they merely exhibit limited public attributes (great talent for certain sports, entertaining skills, electability, and various talents to make gobs of money in business by any legal and illegal means possible). We constantly set up ourselves for disappointment.
In a previous 3/18/09 TMV posting, I advocated the U.S. permit gay marriage, polygamy and polyandry, as sensible and long-needed economic and social reforms. I would draw the line at marrying outside our species, but whatever sort of complex relationships people wish to construct, is their own business. If you can afford it, go ahead and amass a harem or go thru multiple marriages. Just be honest about what you are doing for the sake of your children and the rest of us in society that would prefer not to publicly finance your particular familial choices.
Tiger may be so infatuated with himself that he could never manage a long-term monogamous relationship. Then he should be upfront with that in his various relationships. He successfully manages multiple advertising endorsements – and certainly the business entities involved know he’ll play along with all consenting suitors. Constant praise and adulation on the golf course is just not enough for him. Part of the public prize for the top finishers in most professional sporting events should be a bouncing bevy of pretty young women – they should not just be the obvious hidden benefits. That policy may finally wake up most of the delusional sports wives and the rest of society who still believe monogamy applies to the rich and famous.
Being among the top 1% of the highest earners and wealthiest persons on the planet, normal rules really do not apply to him. Many of his elite friends around the globe also believe that they do not have to answer for their acts murder, rape, grand theft and fraud, plus a host of minor sins of the flesh. We – the other 99% of the world – actually enable them and their endless antics by endlessly following their every escapade, forgiving them every sin and transgression, and making them even more famous and wealthy after each failure that would normally put most people into divorce or bankruptcy court, a prison cell, or all of them.
For thousands of years, we humans and our religious beliefs have yet come to honest terms with our sexual natures. Until we do, we will never come up with rational and livable codes of conduct for the vast majority of us. It is also telling that whole parts of our society’s poor and lower middle class no longer view heterosexual marriage as very worthwhile or even possible from a long-term social or financial perspective. The majority of us are in the process of completely abandoning long-held views of marriage and human sexuality.
It appears our society does not wish to tax the wealthy to help support our public needs, and to make any efforts at reasonably reducing our huge societal chasm in income and wealth disparity. Thus good divorce lawyers are left to help “spread the wealth around.” They take chunks of current and future money and assets from certain wealthy individuals and distribute them in an organized judicially-sanctioned fashion to former spouses, girlfriends, prostitutes, and their law firms. These large monetary distributions will ultimately increase the disposable and spendable income of many more people in society which will invariably improve our overall depressed economy. And legalizing gay marriages, polygamy, polyandry and group marriages would also help our country’s lawyers and accountants in starting, managing, ending, and filing the taxes of these various new legal entities – even more economic stimulus without any federal spending!
Perhaps Tiger Woods has been merely thinking of the other 99% of us who are economically, culturally and socially depressed and who really need an entertaining diversion from all the bad news of 2009. For his many stupid, silly, and all-too-human yet entertaining “transgressions,” escapades, sins and sexual follies, we really have to thank him for his complete lack of restraint.
TOPICS: Chit/Chat
KEYWORDS: polygamy; sports; tiger; tigerwoods
RomneyCare
Free Republic's Rino Free America Project
I can't wait for the comments...
1 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:52:09 AM by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
>>33-year-old professional golfer extraordinaire appears to have amassed a collection of trollops, hussies, harlots, sluts, and other assorted mistresses and bimbos<<
God, how I miss college!
2 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:54:08 AM by freedumb2003 (Communism comes to America: 1/20/2009. Keep your powder dry, folks. Sic semper tyrannis)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
33-year-old professional golfer extraordinaire appears to have amassed a collection of trollops, hussies, harlots, sluts, and other assorted mistresses and bimbos in addition to his main squeeze, the 29-year-old blond, former Swedish model Elin Nordegren to whom he was publicly married in 2004.
The opening line would make Wilt Chamberlain blush!
3 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:54:39 AM by Bushbacker1 ( I'll miss President Bush greatly! Palin in 2012! The "other" Jim Thompson)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Quite possibly the most idiotic form or literary drivel ever scrambled together with a keyboard.
4 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:54:54 AM by TheErnFormerlyKnownAsBig (There once was a dream called, "Hippy Beat Down." The mere whisper of if caused cops to cry.")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Women are hungry for love, but don’t know what it is anymore. They’ve been told that they have a right to be as sexual as men...but that’s not what we’re wired for. Hence, it appears that many of these women ACTUALLY believed Tiger was in love with them. It’s the fantasy...the sexual revolution killed love for women. I’m a woman.
5 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:55:04 AM by Hildy
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
"For thousands of years, we humans and our religious beliefs have yet come to honest terms with our sexual natures. Until we do, we will never come up with rational and livable codes of conduct for the vast majority of us. It is also telling that whole parts of our society’s poor and lower middle class no longer view heterosexual marriage as very worthwhile or even possible from a long-term social or financial perspective. The majority of us are in the process of completely abandoning long-held views of marriage and human sexuality."
......where to start???? IDIOT!
6 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:55:42 AM by goodnesswins (Become a Precinct Committee Person/Officer....in the GOP...or do NOT complain.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Tiger Woods is a lowlife with money
7 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:56:11 AM by SunnyUsa (I'm not one of those "who are we to judge?" people)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
He’s the Sultan, The Sultan of SHWIIIIIIIINGGGGGG
8 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:56:21 AM by This_far (Mandatory insurance! I thought it was about health care?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I thought Bill Clinton made the World safe for philanderers.
9 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:56:27 AM by Huskrrrr
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To: TheErnFormerlyKnownAsBig
or=of
10 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:57:01 AM by TheErnFormerlyKnownAsBig (There once was a dream called, "Hippy Beat Down." The mere whisper of if caused cops to cry.")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
“One could also conjecture that Mrs. Woods might have arranged some of these liaisons in order to get her husband in a bad situation to justify a very good divorce for her own best financial interests. If so, both she and Tiger got carried away in the process.”
Good Grief...!
11 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:58:56 AM by Sleeping Freeper
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Tiger’s lucky he didn’t get ‘Bobbit-tized.’
12 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:59:40 AM by SandRat (Duty, Honor, Country! What else needs said?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Tiger’s lucky he didn’t get ‘Bobbit-tized.’
13 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:00:29 AM by SandRat (Duty, Honor, Country! What else needs said?)
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To: Hildy
You’re right! The sexual revolution benefits men only, they no longer have to pay for sex or get married.
14 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:00:53 AM by Huskrrrr
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To: Hildy
Men pretend to give love to get sex.....women give sex to get love.....now it’s all bastardized because women gave up their POWER! (contrary to what SOME think.)
15 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:07:12 AM by goodnesswins (Become a Precinct Committee Person/Officer....in the GOP...or do NOT complain.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Looks like Tiger’s Harem is going to number top 40 and ties.
16 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:09:17 AM by Patrick1
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Not being rich, famous or particularly good looking I have never faced such temptation.(Thank G_d).
Tiger, you just lost your family and half of what you have, not mention paying off the lawyers, because of your feeding your ego..Tell me Tig, is it worth it?
17 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:10:02 AM by oyez ( damnant quod non intelligunt)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
18 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:11:42 AM by JoeProBono (A closed mouth gathers no feet)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
“The majority of us are in the process of completely abandoning long-held views of marriage and human sexuality.
It appears our society does not wish to tax the wealthy to help support our public needs, and to make any efforts at reasonably reducing our huge societal chasm in income and wealth disparity.”
****************
The author is an ideologue, capitalizing on a man’s failure of good judgment to advance the agenda.
19 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:12:42 AM by Canedawg (Bring lawyers, guns and money.)
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To: goodnesswins
Aw come on, he wrote that article himself to justify himself.
20 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:15:00 AM by chiefqc
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To: SunnyUsa
Pretty much.
21 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:15:49 AM by Tempest (I believe in the sanctity of life... As long as you can afford it.)
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To: goodnesswins
Yes...women gave up their power...couldn’t have said it better myself.
22 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:18:38 AM by Hildy
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
In a previous 3/18/09 TMV posting, I advocated the U.S. permit gay marriage, polygamy and polyandry, as sensible and long-needed economic and social reforms. I would draw the line at marrying outside our species, but whatever sort of complex relationships people wish to construct, is their own business. If you can afford it, go ahead and amass a harem or go thru multiple marriages. Just be honest about what you are doing for the sake of your children and the rest of us in society that would prefer not to publicly finance your particular familial choices.
Currently certifiable, this guy really needs to go back to the 10 commandments and start over from there.
23 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:19:58 AM by Eddie01
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
White Chicks --hilarious..!
24 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:20:47 AM by gaijin
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Just wait till this idiot finds out that his wife is having an affair with a younger, handsomer, richer man....
25 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:37:00 AM by kittymyrib
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
After he’s done with the front nine, does he do the back nine like Kobe Bryant?
26 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:47:06 AM by SERKIT ("Blazing Saddles" explains it all.....)
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To: Hildy
Women are hungry for love, but don’t know what it is anymore. They’ve been told that they have a right to be as sexual as men...but that’s not what we’re wired for. Hence, it appears that many of these women ACTUALLY believed Tiger was in love with them.
You think this is a recent phenomena with women -- Old as time
27 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:54:56 AM by uncbob
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To: oyez
Not being rich, famous or particularly good looking I have never faced such temptation
Well, Tiger may be rich, but he ain't particularly good looking either.
28 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:57:53 AM by FrdmLvr ("The people will believe what the media tells them they believe." Orwell)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
What makes me sick is that none of these people seem to grasp that when a man cheats on a pregnant wife, it's the lowest of low and beyond redemption.
sw
29 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 12:01:11 PM by spectre (Spectre's wife)
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To: goodnesswins
For thousands of years, we humans and our religious beliefs have yet come to honest terms with our sexual natures.
I call complete bovine fecal material.
"...for you have had five husbands, and the one whom you now have is not your husband; this you have said truly."--John 4:16.
"...but if they cannot exercise self-control, let them marry. For it is better to marry than to burn with passion."-- 1 Cor. 7:9
It is also telling that whole parts of our society’s poor and lower middle class no longer view heterosexual marriage as very worthwhile or even possible from a long-term social or financial perspective.
That's the fault of government and multinationals.
The majority of us are in the process of completely abandoning long-held views of marriage and human sexuality.
Really? Does your wife know this? Have you checked *your* pre-nup yet?
Cheers!
30 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 12:05:42 PM by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: uncbob
Really? Women have been told it’s ok to be sluts throughout the history of the world? News to me.
31 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 12:09:26 PM by Hildy
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
He isn't a TIGER
He is a CHEETAH!!
32 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 12:12:28 PM by China Clipper (My favorite animals usually are found next to the rice on my plate.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
the writer is an idiot. The women are more culpable?
Tiger is the only one in a committed relationship, having committed by oath and obligation of fidelity.
The temptresses are doing what they do. Chasing after power, money and fame.
Tiger to was doing his job as a man. Fame, Fortune and “Fornicating” go hand in hand.
Still, Tiger is the one in a committed relationship, not the other women. No matter what your opinion of the women, Tiger is the one who broke the bond.
For the record if I were Tiger, I would accept my world, write a gigantic check and move on. Then I would be happy again, not starting my day with a harpy or miserable because somehow my wife is not attracted to me.
Don’t think that’s what happened? Ge-he-het real. Why should a man or woman resign themselves to celibacy or the once a month club?(because the other side feels obligated)
Maybe I don’t understand, having been single for 46 years but, I would not belong to that club. If we can’t work it out, oh well....
So like I said, if I had Tiger money I would move out.
33 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 12:28:25 PM by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously... You'll never live through it.)
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To: Huskrrrr
Well we did get the “Beam out of our Eye”.
34 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 12:29:57 PM by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously... You'll never live through it.)
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To: gaijin
LOL
35 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 12:33:17 PM by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously... You'll never live through it.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Shows you how women loves $$$ and power.
36 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 12:50:18 PM by MinorityRepublican
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The Moderate Voice Marc Pascal
Yep, he is one.
37 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 12:59:36 PM by razorback-bert (We used to call them astronomical numbers. Now we should call them economical numbers.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Here is a black man that hates black women. He loves white sluts. He is the Michael Jackson of adultery.
38 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 1:12:49 PM by Nosterrex
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
This guy could have written disinformation stuff for the KGB back in the day. He really missed his calling.
39 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 1:13:53 PM by PaleoBob
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Posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:52:09 AM by 2ndDivisionVet
33-year-old professional golfer extraordinaire appears to have amassed a collection of trollops, hussies, harlots, sluts, and other assorted mistresses and bimbos in addition to his main squeeze, the 29-year-old blond, former Swedish model Elin Nordegren to whom he was publicly married in 2004. Too much money, narcissism, ego, sex-drive, and far too many willing and perhaps conniving young women interested in short-term, shallow, fantasy affairs have created the celebrity sports/entertainment scandal of the month. The coverage may keep going for months to come as it has proven to be great fodder for our shallow 24/7 info-entertainment business.
Tiger is a world-wide celebrity of mixed-race origin (Black & Asian) who has shown a strong sexual preference for natural and dyed blond women of Caucasian descent. Perhaps at his tender age, he didn’t get all his philandering out of his system and he should have waited until he was over 40 to get married. Alternatively he just exemplifies the “natural proclivities” in human nature when completely unrestrained by financial, social, technological, or ethical considerations. His biggest alleged deception under our outdated moral codes was to his spouse and children – but then they are not that financially strained by his escapades as would be most families.
Did any of Tiger’s mistresses really think they were the “only” one, that he wasn’t already married, and that it was highly unlikely he would voluntarily leave his spouse for any of them? Most professional prostitutes jealously guard their clients’ privacy because they have profitable businesses to preserve. Instead we have most of these bimbos eagerly giving bedroom sex reports, making public statements with attorneys, and arranging photo shoots. Their interests in Tiger might have been temporary and financial – as calculated means to get their 15 minutes or more of fame in their rather useless lives. Perhaps some of them are collecting celebrity lovers just for the bragging rights and for some potential future financial remuneration.
Take away Tiger’s golf skills and money, and he’d be just another working stiff with a pleasant smile easily ignored by many women.
One could also conjecture that Mrs. Woods might have arranged some of these liaisons in order to get her husband in a bad situation to justify a very good divorce for her own best financial interests. If so, both she and Tiger got carried away in the process.
Some readers may criticize me for taking a harsh view of the women involved and left Tiger and his oversized putter essentially off the hook. That is not true, but I have been listing some of the arguments my own spouse raised in a recent discussion.
My wife of almost 12 years and 10 years my junior is a very attractive Colombiana from South America. Her take on male-female relations is quite different from the foolishly myopic views of many American women. She puts equal or more blame on the women in these affairs. Many Latinas view men as pretty stupid and weak when it comes to sexual temptation and they acknowledge the reality that their fellow females (regardless of race, creed, skin and hair color, age, nationality, and marital status) can be quite determined and calculating when it comes to using men for their own purposes. She also wisely told me that I’m too poor, cheap, old and boring to waste time and money on any other women – she knows me better than I do.
Like all great deceptions of the past 20 years, occurring in realms of business, politics and sports, many of them are finally seeing the light of day. These public revelations have upset, angered and disappointed many people with our all-too-human foibles and continuous moral failings also know as “sins.” We continue to foolishly extend many virtues to our leaders in sports and politics that deep down we probably realize they may not actually possess (i.e. fidelity, honesty) when they merely exhibit limited public attributes (great talent for certain sports, entertaining skills, electability, and various talents to make gobs of money in business by any legal and illegal means possible). We constantly set up ourselves for disappointment.
In a previous 3/18/09 TMV posting, I advocated the U.S. permit gay marriage, polygamy and polyandry, as sensible and long-needed economic and social reforms. I would draw the line at marrying outside our species, but whatever sort of complex relationships people wish to construct, is their own business. If you can afford it, go ahead and amass a harem or go thru multiple marriages. Just be honest about what you are doing for the sake of your children and the rest of us in society that would prefer not to publicly finance your particular familial choices.
Tiger may be so infatuated with himself that he could never manage a long-term monogamous relationship. Then he should be upfront with that in his various relationships. He successfully manages multiple advertising endorsements – and certainly the business entities involved know he’ll play along with all consenting suitors. Constant praise and adulation on the golf course is just not enough for him. Part of the public prize for the top finishers in most professional sporting events should be a bouncing bevy of pretty young women – they should not just be the obvious hidden benefits. That policy may finally wake up most of the delusional sports wives and the rest of society who still believe monogamy applies to the rich and famous.
Being among the top 1% of the highest earners and wealthiest persons on the planet, normal rules really do not apply to him. Many of his elite friends around the globe also believe that they do not have to answer for their acts murder, rape, grand theft and fraud, plus a host of minor sins of the flesh. We – the other 99% of the world – actually enable them and their endless antics by endlessly following their every escapade, forgiving them every sin and transgression, and making them even more famous and wealthy after each failure that would normally put most people into divorce or bankruptcy court, a prison cell, or all of them.
For thousands of years, we humans and our religious beliefs have yet come to honest terms with our sexual natures. Until we do, we will never come up with rational and livable codes of conduct for the vast majority of us. It is also telling that whole parts of our society’s poor and lower middle class no longer view heterosexual marriage as very worthwhile or even possible from a long-term social or financial perspective. The majority of us are in the process of completely abandoning long-held views of marriage and human sexuality.
It appears our society does not wish to tax the wealthy to help support our public needs, and to make any efforts at reasonably reducing our huge societal chasm in income and wealth disparity. Thus good divorce lawyers are left to help “spread the wealth around.” They take chunks of current and future money and assets from certain wealthy individuals and distribute them in an organized judicially-sanctioned fashion to former spouses, girlfriends, prostitutes, and their law firms. These large monetary distributions will ultimately increase the disposable and spendable income of many more people in society which will invariably improve our overall depressed economy. And legalizing gay marriages, polygamy, polyandry and group marriages would also help our country’s lawyers and accountants in starting, managing, ending, and filing the taxes of these various new legal entities – even more economic stimulus without any federal spending!
Perhaps Tiger Woods has been merely thinking of the other 99% of us who are economically, culturally and socially depressed and who really need an entertaining diversion from all the bad news of 2009. For his many stupid, silly, and all-too-human yet entertaining “transgressions,” escapades, sins and sexual follies, we really have to thank him for his complete lack of restraint.
TOPICS: Chit/Chat
KEYWORDS: polygamy; sports; tiger; tigerwoods
RomneyCare
Free Republic's Rino Free America Project
I can't wait for the comments...
1 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:52:09 AM by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
>>33-year-old professional golfer extraordinaire appears to have amassed a collection of trollops, hussies, harlots, sluts, and other assorted mistresses and bimbos<<
God, how I miss college!
2 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:54:08 AM by freedumb2003 (Communism comes to America: 1/20/2009. Keep your powder dry, folks. Sic semper tyrannis)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
33-year-old professional golfer extraordinaire appears to have amassed a collection of trollops, hussies, harlots, sluts, and other assorted mistresses and bimbos in addition to his main squeeze, the 29-year-old blond, former Swedish model Elin Nordegren to whom he was publicly married in 2004.
The opening line would make Wilt Chamberlain blush!
3 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:54:39 AM by Bushbacker1 ( I'll miss President Bush greatly! Palin in 2012! The "other" Jim Thompson)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Quite possibly the most idiotic form or literary drivel ever scrambled together with a keyboard.
4 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:54:54 AM by TheErnFormerlyKnownAsBig (There once was a dream called, "Hippy Beat Down." The mere whisper of if caused cops to cry.")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Women are hungry for love, but don’t know what it is anymore. They’ve been told that they have a right to be as sexual as men...but that’s not what we’re wired for. Hence, it appears that many of these women ACTUALLY believed Tiger was in love with them. It’s the fantasy...the sexual revolution killed love for women. I’m a woman.
5 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:55:04 AM by Hildy
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
"For thousands of years, we humans and our religious beliefs have yet come to honest terms with our sexual natures. Until we do, we will never come up with rational and livable codes of conduct for the vast majority of us. It is also telling that whole parts of our society’s poor and lower middle class no longer view heterosexual marriage as very worthwhile or even possible from a long-term social or financial perspective. The majority of us are in the process of completely abandoning long-held views of marriage and human sexuality."
......where to start???? IDIOT!
6 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:55:42 AM by goodnesswins (Become a Precinct Committee Person/Officer....in the GOP...or do NOT complain.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Tiger Woods is a lowlife with money
7 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:56:11 AM by SunnyUsa (I'm not one of those "who are we to judge?" people)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
He’s the Sultan, The Sultan of SHWIIIIIIIINGGGGGG
8 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:56:21 AM by This_far (Mandatory insurance! I thought it was about health care?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I thought Bill Clinton made the World safe for philanderers.
9 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:56:27 AM by Huskrrrr
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To: TheErnFormerlyKnownAsBig
or=of
10 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:57:01 AM by TheErnFormerlyKnownAsBig (There once was a dream called, "Hippy Beat Down." The mere whisper of if caused cops to cry.")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
“One could also conjecture that Mrs. Woods might have arranged some of these liaisons in order to get her husband in a bad situation to justify a very good divorce for her own best financial interests. If so, both she and Tiger got carried away in the process.”
Good Grief...!
11 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:58:56 AM by Sleeping Freeper
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Tiger’s lucky he didn’t get ‘Bobbit-tized.’
12 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 10:59:40 AM by SandRat (Duty, Honor, Country! What else needs said?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Tiger’s lucky he didn’t get ‘Bobbit-tized.’
13 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:00:29 AM by SandRat (Duty, Honor, Country! What else needs said?)
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To: Hildy
You’re right! The sexual revolution benefits men only, they no longer have to pay for sex or get married.
14 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:00:53 AM by Huskrrrr
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To: Hildy
Men pretend to give love to get sex.....women give sex to get love.....now it’s all bastardized because women gave up their POWER! (contrary to what SOME think.)
15 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:07:12 AM by goodnesswins (Become a Precinct Committee Person/Officer....in the GOP...or do NOT complain.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Looks like Tiger’s Harem is going to number top 40 and ties.
16 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:09:17 AM by Patrick1
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Not being rich, famous or particularly good looking I have never faced such temptation.(Thank G_d).
Tiger, you just lost your family and half of what you have, not mention paying off the lawyers, because of your feeding your ego..Tell me Tig, is it worth it?
17 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:10:02 AM by oyez ( damnant quod non intelligunt)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
18 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:11:42 AM by JoeProBono (A closed mouth gathers no feet)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
“The majority of us are in the process of completely abandoning long-held views of marriage and human sexuality.
It appears our society does not wish to tax the wealthy to help support our public needs, and to make any efforts at reasonably reducing our huge societal chasm in income and wealth disparity.”
****************
The author is an ideologue, capitalizing on a man’s failure of good judgment to advance the agenda.
19 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:12:42 AM by Canedawg (Bring lawyers, guns and money.)
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To: goodnesswins
Aw come on, he wrote that article himself to justify himself.
20 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:15:00 AM by chiefqc
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To: SunnyUsa
Pretty much.
21 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:15:49 AM by Tempest (I believe in the sanctity of life... As long as you can afford it.)
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To: goodnesswins
Yes...women gave up their power...couldn’t have said it better myself.
22 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:18:38 AM by Hildy
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
In a previous 3/18/09 TMV posting, I advocated the U.S. permit gay marriage, polygamy and polyandry, as sensible and long-needed economic and social reforms. I would draw the line at marrying outside our species, but whatever sort of complex relationships people wish to construct, is their own business. If you can afford it, go ahead and amass a harem or go thru multiple marriages. Just be honest about what you are doing for the sake of your children and the rest of us in society that would prefer not to publicly finance your particular familial choices.
Currently certifiable, this guy really needs to go back to the 10 commandments and start over from there.
23 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:19:58 AM by Eddie01
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
White Chicks --hilarious..!
24 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:20:47 AM by gaijin
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Just wait till this idiot finds out that his wife is having an affair with a younger, handsomer, richer man....
25 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:37:00 AM by kittymyrib
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
After he’s done with the front nine, does he do the back nine like Kobe Bryant?
26 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:47:06 AM by SERKIT ("Blazing Saddles" explains it all.....)
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To: Hildy
Women are hungry for love, but don’t know what it is anymore. They’ve been told that they have a right to be as sexual as men...but that’s not what we’re wired for. Hence, it appears that many of these women ACTUALLY believed Tiger was in love with them.
You think this is a recent phenomena with women -- Old as time
27 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:54:56 AM by uncbob
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To: oyez
Not being rich, famous or particularly good looking I have never faced such temptation
Well, Tiger may be rich, but he ain't particularly good looking either.
28 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 11:57:53 AM by FrdmLvr ("The people will believe what the media tells them they believe." Orwell)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
What makes me sick is that none of these people seem to grasp that when a man cheats on a pregnant wife, it's the lowest of low and beyond redemption.
sw
29 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 12:01:11 PM by spectre (Spectre's wife)
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To: goodnesswins
For thousands of years, we humans and our religious beliefs have yet come to honest terms with our sexual natures.
I call complete bovine fecal material.
"...for you have had five husbands, and the one whom you now have is not your husband; this you have said truly."--John 4:16.
"...but if they cannot exercise self-control, let them marry. For it is better to marry than to burn with passion."-- 1 Cor. 7:9
It is also telling that whole parts of our society’s poor and lower middle class no longer view heterosexual marriage as very worthwhile or even possible from a long-term social or financial perspective.
That's the fault of government and multinationals.
The majority of us are in the process of completely abandoning long-held views of marriage and human sexuality.
Really? Does your wife know this? Have you checked *your* pre-nup yet?
Cheers!
30 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 12:05:42 PM by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: uncbob
Really? Women have been told it’s ok to be sluts throughout the history of the world? News to me.
31 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 12:09:26 PM by Hildy
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
He isn't a TIGER
He is a CHEETAH!!
32 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 12:12:28 PM by China Clipper (My favorite animals usually are found next to the rice on my plate.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
the writer is an idiot. The women are more culpable?
Tiger is the only one in a committed relationship, having committed by oath and obligation of fidelity.
The temptresses are doing what they do. Chasing after power, money and fame.
Tiger to was doing his job as a man. Fame, Fortune and “Fornicating” go hand in hand.
Still, Tiger is the one in a committed relationship, not the other women. No matter what your opinion of the women, Tiger is the one who broke the bond.
For the record if I were Tiger, I would accept my world, write a gigantic check and move on. Then I would be happy again, not starting my day with a harpy or miserable because somehow my wife is not attracted to me.
Don’t think that’s what happened? Ge-he-het real. Why should a man or woman resign themselves to celibacy or the once a month club?(because the other side feels obligated)
Maybe I don’t understand, having been single for 46 years but, I would not belong to that club. If we can’t work it out, oh well....
So like I said, if I had Tiger money I would move out.
33 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 12:28:25 PM by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously... You'll never live through it.)
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To: Huskrrrr
Well we did get the “Beam out of our Eye”.
34 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 12:29:57 PM by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously... You'll never live through it.)
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To: gaijin
LOL
35 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 12:33:17 PM by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously... You'll never live through it.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Shows you how women loves $$$ and power.
36 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 12:50:18 PM by MinorityRepublican
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The Moderate Voice Marc Pascal
Yep, he is one.
37 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 12:59:36 PM by razorback-bert (We used to call them astronomical numbers. Now we should call them economical numbers.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Here is a black man that hates black women. He loves white sluts. He is the Michael Jackson of adultery.
38 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 1:12:49 PM by Nosterrex
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
This guy could have written disinformation stuff for the KGB back in the day. He really missed his calling.
39 posted on Tuesday, December 08, 2009 1:13:53 PM by PaleoBob
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Monday, December 7, 2009
European Stocks, U.S. Index Futures Fall; Asian Shares Advance
By Adria Cimino
Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks declined, led by mining companies as metals prices fell. U.S. futures retreated, while Asian shares rose.
Fresnillo Plc, the world’s largest primary silver producer, and Xstrata Plc led basic-resources producers lower, sinking at least 1.6 percent. Siemens AG, Europe’s biggest engineering company, slipped 1.9 percent after Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation on the shares. Nutreco Holding NV rose 3.4 percent after ING Groep NV recommended buying the stock.
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600, a benchmark for the region, slipped 0.7 percent to 247.29 at 8:17 a.m. in London. The index is valued at about 56 times its companies’ reported earnings, near the highest since June 2003, according to weekly data compiled by Bloomberg.
European stocks gained last week following government reports that showed manufacturing in China and Europe expanded and employers in the U.S. cut the fewest jobs in November since the recession began. Record-low interest rates and about $12 trillion in spending by governments worldwide have spurred a 58 percent rally in the Stoxx 600 since March 9.
U.S. stocks rose during the last trading session, lifting the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the biggest weekly gain in three weeks. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.4 percent today, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4 percent.
Asian Stocks
Canon Inc., the world’s largest maker of cameras and which gets 28 percent of revenue in the Americas, added 3.3 percent in Tokyo as the U.S. jobs report on Dec. 4 buoyed confidence in an economic recovery. Billabong International Ltd., a clothing maker that gets more than half its revenue in the Americas, added 4.9 percent in Syndey.
Fresnillo lost 1.3 percent to 853.5 pence. Xstrata, the world’s fourth-biggest copper supplier, slid 1.5 percent to 1,050 pence. Copper, lead, nickel and silver were among metals declining in London.
Siemens retreated 1.9 percent to 62.31 euros. Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation on the shares to “equal weight” from “overweight.”
BASF, Randstad
BASF SE, the world’s biggest chemical company, will post better-than-expected fourth-quarter results after sales in October and November were “pleasing” and new orders increased, Chief Executive Officer Juergen Hambrecht told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper. BASF shares rose 1.2 percent to 33.2 euros.
Randstad Holding NV gained 1.1 percent to 33.18 euros. The second-largest temporary staffing company was raised to “buy” from “hold” at Deutsche Bank AG.
Forecasts for the fastest U.S. earnings growth in 15 years are failing to convince options traders that the S&P 500 will extend its biggest rally since the 1930s.
S&P 500 options to protect against declines in stocks over the next year cost 22 percent more than one-month contracts, the highest since 1999, data compiled by London-based Barclays Plc and Bloomberg show. The gap shows concern that analyst estimates for record earnings by 2011 may prove exaggerated, endangering an advance that pushed the S&P 500 up 63 percent since March.
To contact the reporter on this story: Adria Cimino in Paris at acimino1@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: December 7, 2009 03:22 EST
i short ctsh on thursday & was screw friday pre market
now this news? have to tread carefully...
Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks declined, led by mining companies as metals prices fell. U.S. futures retreated, while Asian shares rose.
Fresnillo Plc, the world’s largest primary silver producer, and Xstrata Plc led basic-resources producers lower, sinking at least 1.6 percent. Siemens AG, Europe’s biggest engineering company, slipped 1.9 percent after Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation on the shares. Nutreco Holding NV rose 3.4 percent after ING Groep NV recommended buying the stock.
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600, a benchmark for the region, slipped 0.7 percent to 247.29 at 8:17 a.m. in London. The index is valued at about 56 times its companies’ reported earnings, near the highest since June 2003, according to weekly data compiled by Bloomberg.
European stocks gained last week following government reports that showed manufacturing in China and Europe expanded and employers in the U.S. cut the fewest jobs in November since the recession began. Record-low interest rates and about $12 trillion in spending by governments worldwide have spurred a 58 percent rally in the Stoxx 600 since March 9.
U.S. stocks rose during the last trading session, lifting the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the biggest weekly gain in three weeks. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.4 percent today, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4 percent.
Asian Stocks
Canon Inc., the world’s largest maker of cameras and which gets 28 percent of revenue in the Americas, added 3.3 percent in Tokyo as the U.S. jobs report on Dec. 4 buoyed confidence in an economic recovery. Billabong International Ltd., a clothing maker that gets more than half its revenue in the Americas, added 4.9 percent in Syndey.
Fresnillo lost 1.3 percent to 853.5 pence. Xstrata, the world’s fourth-biggest copper supplier, slid 1.5 percent to 1,050 pence. Copper, lead, nickel and silver were among metals declining in London.
Siemens retreated 1.9 percent to 62.31 euros. Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation on the shares to “equal weight” from “overweight.”
BASF, Randstad
BASF SE, the world’s biggest chemical company, will post better-than-expected fourth-quarter results after sales in October and November were “pleasing” and new orders increased, Chief Executive Officer Juergen Hambrecht told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper. BASF shares rose 1.2 percent to 33.2 euros.
Randstad Holding NV gained 1.1 percent to 33.18 euros. The second-largest temporary staffing company was raised to “buy” from “hold” at Deutsche Bank AG.
Forecasts for the fastest U.S. earnings growth in 15 years are failing to convince options traders that the S&P 500 will extend its biggest rally since the 1930s.
S&P 500 options to protect against declines in stocks over the next year cost 22 percent more than one-month contracts, the highest since 1999, data compiled by London-based Barclays Plc and Bloomberg show. The gap shows concern that analyst estimates for record earnings by 2011 may prove exaggerated, endangering an advance that pushed the S&P 500 up 63 percent since March.
To contact the reporter on this story: Adria Cimino in Paris at acimino1@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: December 7, 2009 03:22 EST
i short ctsh on thursday & was screw friday pre market
now this news? have to tread carefully...
why not use teleconference?
Copenhagen climate change summit to produce as much CO2 as an African country
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1233771/Climate-change-summit-produce-CO2-African-country.html#ixzz0YzWNVzs7
It is being hyped as the summit that will save the planet. But, according to critics, next week's climate change talks in Copenhagen are more likely to cost the earth.
Researchers yesterday estimated that the bill for the 12-day jamboree will top £130million – and will generate as much greenhouse gas as an entire African country.
More than 15,000 delegates and 45,000 green activists are due to descend on the Danish capital over the next two weeks in a meeting described by British economist Lord Stern as 'the most important since the Second World War'.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1233771/Climate-change-summit-produce-CO2-African-country.html#ixzz0YzWRgZOm
They will be joined by at least 5,000 journalists – including 35 from the BBC alone – and 100 world leaders, including Gordon Brown and Barack Obama.
The UN has confirmed flights, rail and bus travel, food and energy from the conference will generate at least 41,000 tons of carbon dioxide.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1233771/Climate-change-summit-produce-CO2-African-country.html#ixzz0YzWVEgWe
That's more greenhouse gas than produced by Malawi, Afghanistan or Sierra Leone over the same period.
The Danish government says it will offset emissions by planting trees or investing in green projects.
The conference aims to set targets for cutting global greenhouse gas emissions from farming, industry and transport.
The aim is to keep the rise in world temperatures to within 2c by the end of the century.
Climate scientists believe a 40 per cent cut on 1990 levels of emissions is needed by 2020 – rising to an 80 per cent cut by 2050.
Enlarge Heat at Copenhagen
Western nations will also be asked to pay into a fund worth £100billion a year to help developing countries protect against rising sea levels, droughts and floods.
President Obama and the Danish prime minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen have conceded the conference will not produce a legally binding treaty.
But British ministers say a political deal could pave the way for a full treaty within months.
Climate change minister Ed Miliband said: 'Sticking your head in the sand is not an answer.'
Yesterday Mr Miliband clashed with former chancellor Lord Lawson over global warming.
They appeared on the BBC's Politics Show where Lord Lawson, chairman of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, repeated his long-held doubts.
Mr Miliband accused Lord Lawson of being 'profoundly irresponsible'.
He said Lord Lawson was 'spreading doubt' despite a scientific consensus.
* Almost half of us remain unconvinced by claims that global warming is man’s fault. In a survey for ICM, 39 per cent said climate change had not been proved to be man-made, while a further 7 per cent said they did not think it was happening at all. Fewer than one in four agreed climate change was ‘the most serious problem posed by man’. One in six said it was ‘not a very serious problem’.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/dec/07/media-complicity-in-climategate/
EDITORIAL: Media complicity in Climategate
By THE WASHINGTON TIMES
A tale of destroyed documents, fraud, conspiracy and the misuse of millions of government dollars would seem to have all the juicy ingredients of a scandal that journalists would kill to cover. However, the mainstream media apparently doesn't think that Climategate is news. ABC News hasn't deemed the story newsworthy. Neither has CBS nor NBC. If Americans only got their news from the networks, they would not know about the global-warming fraud or would merely think there was a simple misunderstanding about what scientists meant in some vague e-mails
Never mind that two major universities have at least temporarily removed prominent academics from heading major climate research facilities. Never mind that there are real questions raised about the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) controversial assessment report that the Obama administration and global-warming advocates have continually hyped in order to advance their case for new global regulations to curtail purported global warming.
Liberal news agencies might be casting a blind eye at this controversy, but even left-wing comedians such as "The Daily Show's" Jon Stewart take these events seriously enough to make fun of the defenses being offered by the scientists caught in the scandal. Take one of Mr. Stewart's jokes regarding the now infamous e-mail about the "trick of adding in the real temps to each series ... to hide the decline [in temperature]." A Tuesday repartee follows:
Mr. Stewart: "It's nothing. He was just using a trick to hide the decline. It is just scientist speak for using a standard statistical technique recalibrating data in order to trick you into not knowing about the decline. But here is what is great about science in disagreement. We go back and look at the raw data."
Announcer: "University scientists say raw data from the 1980s was thrown out."
Jon Stewart: "Why would you go and throw out data from the 1980s? I still have Penthouses from the 1970s."
Despite cracks on late-night TV, the scandal is not considered newsworthy by the major television networks. The Media Research Center reported that through Tuesday, "none of the broadcast network weekday morning and evening news shows addressed Climategate or the incriminating [East Anglia climate scientist Phil] Jones development. ... This marked 12 days since the information was first uncovered that they have ignored this global scandal."
The networks found plenty of airtime to cover rumored family problems plaguing professional golfer Tiger Woods. Yet, even though there is climate-regulation legislation pending in Congress that could cost Americans trillions of dollars, network producers don't see anything newsworthy in a scandal exposing fraud in global-warming research. Such omissions make mainstream news complicit in the cover-up.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1233771/Climate-change-summit-produce-CO2-African-country.html#ixzz0YzWNVzs7
It is being hyped as the summit that will save the planet. But, according to critics, next week's climate change talks in Copenhagen are more likely to cost the earth.
Researchers yesterday estimated that the bill for the 12-day jamboree will top £130million – and will generate as much greenhouse gas as an entire African country.
More than 15,000 delegates and 45,000 green activists are due to descend on the Danish capital over the next two weeks in a meeting described by British economist Lord Stern as 'the most important since the Second World War'.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1233771/Climate-change-summit-produce-CO2-African-country.html#ixzz0YzWRgZOm
They will be joined by at least 5,000 journalists – including 35 from the BBC alone – and 100 world leaders, including Gordon Brown and Barack Obama.
The UN has confirmed flights, rail and bus travel, food and energy from the conference will generate at least 41,000 tons of carbon dioxide.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1233771/Climate-change-summit-produce-CO2-African-country.html#ixzz0YzWVEgWe
That's more greenhouse gas than produced by Malawi, Afghanistan or Sierra Leone over the same period.
The Danish government says it will offset emissions by planting trees or investing in green projects.
The conference aims to set targets for cutting global greenhouse gas emissions from farming, industry and transport.
The aim is to keep the rise in world temperatures to within 2c by the end of the century.
Climate scientists believe a 40 per cent cut on 1990 levels of emissions is needed by 2020 – rising to an 80 per cent cut by 2050.
Enlarge Heat at Copenhagen
Western nations will also be asked to pay into a fund worth £100billion a year to help developing countries protect against rising sea levels, droughts and floods.
President Obama and the Danish prime minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen have conceded the conference will not produce a legally binding treaty.
But British ministers say a political deal could pave the way for a full treaty within months.
Climate change minister Ed Miliband said: 'Sticking your head in the sand is not an answer.'
Yesterday Mr Miliband clashed with former chancellor Lord Lawson over global warming.
They appeared on the BBC's Politics Show where Lord Lawson, chairman of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, repeated his long-held doubts.
Mr Miliband accused Lord Lawson of being 'profoundly irresponsible'.
He said Lord Lawson was 'spreading doubt' despite a scientific consensus.
* Almost half of us remain unconvinced by claims that global warming is man’s fault. In a survey for ICM, 39 per cent said climate change had not been proved to be man-made, while a further 7 per cent said they did not think it was happening at all. Fewer than one in four agreed climate change was ‘the most serious problem posed by man’. One in six said it was ‘not a very serious problem’.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/dec/07/media-complicity-in-climategate/
EDITORIAL: Media complicity in Climategate
By THE WASHINGTON TIMES
A tale of destroyed documents, fraud, conspiracy and the misuse of millions of government dollars would seem to have all the juicy ingredients of a scandal that journalists would kill to cover. However, the mainstream media apparently doesn't think that Climategate is news. ABC News hasn't deemed the story newsworthy. Neither has CBS nor NBC. If Americans only got their news from the networks, they would not know about the global-warming fraud or would merely think there was a simple misunderstanding about what scientists meant in some vague e-mails
Never mind that two major universities have at least temporarily removed prominent academics from heading major climate research facilities. Never mind that there are real questions raised about the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) controversial assessment report that the Obama administration and global-warming advocates have continually hyped in order to advance their case for new global regulations to curtail purported global warming.
Liberal news agencies might be casting a blind eye at this controversy, but even left-wing comedians such as "The Daily Show's" Jon Stewart take these events seriously enough to make fun of the defenses being offered by the scientists caught in the scandal. Take one of Mr. Stewart's jokes regarding the now infamous e-mail about the "trick of adding in the real temps to each series ... to hide the decline [in temperature]." A Tuesday repartee follows:
Mr. Stewart: "It's nothing. He was just using a trick to hide the decline. It is just scientist speak for using a standard statistical technique recalibrating data in order to trick you into not knowing about the decline. But here is what is great about science in disagreement. We go back and look at the raw data."
Announcer: "University scientists say raw data from the 1980s was thrown out."
Jon Stewart: "Why would you go and throw out data from the 1980s? I still have Penthouses from the 1970s."
Despite cracks on late-night TV, the scandal is not considered newsworthy by the major television networks. The Media Research Center reported that through Tuesday, "none of the broadcast network weekday morning and evening news shows addressed Climategate or the incriminating [East Anglia climate scientist Phil] Jones development. ... This marked 12 days since the information was first uncovered that they have ignored this global scandal."
The networks found plenty of airtime to cover rumored family problems plaguing professional golfer Tiger Woods. Yet, even though there is climate-regulation legislation pending in Congress that could cost Americans trillions of dollars, network producers don't see anything newsworthy in a scandal exposing fraud in global-warming research. Such omissions make mainstream news complicit in the cover-up.
Saturday, December 5, 2009
Putting theory into practice - wow! :)
wow! never thought my picks would be quite good :)
after so many hard long years, i can finally see some light at the end of the tunnel
the only way to see my action in real time was to find a forum & create a ruckus there
july2008-july2009 was a hibernating period & deep self reflection, as the jigsaw puzzle begin to fall into place, i did not realize it yet, was at point of surrender
july2009-july2010, wonder wat it wil bring? had alredi put teori into practice & tested it in the forum, now is time to be humble & to recoup from r&d - payback time, baby!
i went to lots of other forums, but it was dead or inactive & boring
someone recommended lowyat forum investing in us stocks
thus i applied what i have learnt & to gauge the feedback by joining up
not bad, very few dare to argue with me
if they argue, also no fact or no points
even after giving out points for them to note & giving so much clue
they r all pro democrats, while i m pro republican, but not rino
i found it is impossible to teach old dogs new tricks & i given up on them too... haha
overall, i learnt from them & hope they learnt from me too
all the advise & tips i posted there, are in real time & its available for viewing
now, time to be the lonewolf & have more confident in my capability for stock picking
things new learnt its reading futures (bloomberg), monthly usa data (cnn) & FA or valuation (morningstar) on swing trading & new high + day trade too
credit goes to my wife, uncle, jesse livermore, william o'neil & bill wermine
here are my post in the forum, u can expand it & see the others interaction- cool!
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=Search&nav=au&CODE=show&searchid=ed494cf084b652e207b33e6e4f307c05&search_in=posts&result_type=posts&hl=&st=200
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=Search&nav=au&CODE=show&searchid=ed494cf084b652e207b33e6e4f307c05&search_in=posts&result_type=posts&hl=&st=175
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=Search&nav=au&CODE=show&searchid=ed494cf084b652e207b33e6e4f307c05&search_in=posts&result_type=posts&hl=&st=150
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=Search&nav=au&CODE=show&searchid=ed494cf084b652e207b33e6e4f307c05&search_in=posts&result_type=posts&hl=&st=125
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=Search&nav=au&CODE=show&searchid=ed494cf084b652e207b33e6e4f307c05&search_in=posts&result_type=posts&hl=&st=100
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=Search&nav=au&CODE=show&searchid=ed494cf084b652e207b33e6e4f307c05&search_in=posts&result_type=posts&hl=&st=75
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=Search&nav=au&CODE=show&searchid=ed494cf084b652e207b33e6e4f307c05&search_in=posts&result_type=posts&hl=&st=50
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=Search&nav=au&CODE=show&searchid=ed494cf084b652e207b33e6e4f307c05&search_in=posts&result_type=posts&hl=&st=25
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=Search&nav=au&CODE=show&searchid=ed494cf084b652e207b33e6e4f307c05&search_in=posts&result_type=posts&hl=&st=0
& they've open a new thread too, due to active participation
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopic=1249574
& its renamed in lowyat forum US stock discussion v2
tis was the old thread
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/593237/+2480#entry30366731
i really learnt a lot from sharing, its a two way process :) GOOD LUCK to all
& anything is really possible, must have interest & perseverance...
google search on myself...haha, but its where i posted in forum for memory sake, when i read tis forum in 20 years time
http://www.google.com.my/#hl=en&q=sulifeisgreat&start=10&sa=N&fp=2cf5764bb9d51d04
http://www.google.com.my/#hl=en&q=sulifeisgreat&meta=cr%3DcountryMY&aq=f&oq=sulifeisgreat&fp=2cf5764bb9d51d04
its the holidays & my relatives & cousins from overseas are coming back for holidays. gonna be busy but i will try post some stuff here fortnightly or monthly
after so many hard long years, i can finally see some light at the end of the tunnel
the only way to see my action in real time was to find a forum & create a ruckus there
july2008-july2009 was a hibernating period & deep self reflection, as the jigsaw puzzle begin to fall into place, i did not realize it yet, was at point of surrender
july2009-july2010, wonder wat it wil bring? had alredi put teori into practice & tested it in the forum, now is time to be humble & to recoup from r&d - payback time, baby!
i went to lots of other forums, but it was dead or inactive & boring
someone recommended lowyat forum investing in us stocks
thus i applied what i have learnt & to gauge the feedback by joining up
not bad, very few dare to argue with me
if they argue, also no fact or no points
even after giving out points for them to note & giving so much clue
they r all pro democrats, while i m pro republican, but not rino
i found it is impossible to teach old dogs new tricks & i given up on them too... haha
overall, i learnt from them & hope they learnt from me too
all the advise & tips i posted there, are in real time & its available for viewing
now, time to be the lonewolf & have more confident in my capability for stock picking
things new learnt its reading futures (bloomberg), monthly usa data (cnn) & FA or valuation (morningstar) on swing trading & new high + day trade too
credit goes to my wife, uncle, jesse livermore, william o'neil & bill wermine
here are my post in the forum, u can expand it & see the others interaction- cool!
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=Search&nav=au&CODE=show&searchid=ed494cf084b652e207b33e6e4f307c05&search_in=posts&result_type=posts&hl=&st=200
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=Search&nav=au&CODE=show&searchid=ed494cf084b652e207b33e6e4f307c05&search_in=posts&result_type=posts&hl=&st=175
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=Search&nav=au&CODE=show&searchid=ed494cf084b652e207b33e6e4f307c05&search_in=posts&result_type=posts&hl=&st=150
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=Search&nav=au&CODE=show&searchid=ed494cf084b652e207b33e6e4f307c05&search_in=posts&result_type=posts&hl=&st=125
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=Search&nav=au&CODE=show&searchid=ed494cf084b652e207b33e6e4f307c05&search_in=posts&result_type=posts&hl=&st=100
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=Search&nav=au&CODE=show&searchid=ed494cf084b652e207b33e6e4f307c05&search_in=posts&result_type=posts&hl=&st=75
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=Search&nav=au&CODE=show&searchid=ed494cf084b652e207b33e6e4f307c05&search_in=posts&result_type=posts&hl=&st=50
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=Search&nav=au&CODE=show&searchid=ed494cf084b652e207b33e6e4f307c05&search_in=posts&result_type=posts&hl=&st=25
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=Search&nav=au&CODE=show&searchid=ed494cf084b652e207b33e6e4f307c05&search_in=posts&result_type=posts&hl=&st=0
& they've open a new thread too, due to active participation
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopic=1249574
& its renamed in lowyat forum US stock discussion v2
tis was the old thread
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/593237/+2480#entry30366731
i really learnt a lot from sharing, its a two way process :) GOOD LUCK to all
& anything is really possible, must have interest & perseverance...
google search on myself...haha, but its where i posted in forum for memory sake, when i read tis forum in 20 years time
http://www.google.com.my/#hl=en&q=sulifeisgreat&start=10&sa=N&fp=2cf5764bb9d51d04
http://www.google.com.my/#hl=en&q=sulifeisgreat&meta=cr%3DcountryMY&aq=f&oq=sulifeisgreat&fp=2cf5764bb9d51d04
its the holidays & my relatives & cousins from overseas are coming back for holidays. gonna be busy but i will try post some stuff here fortnightly or monthly
The FBI agent inside the Galleon case
NEW YORK/BOSTON (Reuters) - B.J. Kang may be the most feared man on Wall Street.
When Bernie Madoff, who engineered history's biggest Ponzi scheme, was arrested, FBI Special Agent Kang was right at his side. And less than a year later, there was Kang again, in a "perp walk," shuffling alongside a handcuffed Raj Rajaratnam, the former hedge fund star at Galleon accused of earning millions off illegally obtained stock tips.
The question on the minds of investors, managers and lawyers inside and outside the hedge fund industry today is, who's next?
Of course, no one knows for sure. But court documents and interviews with many industry sources familiar with the case show that agent Kang may be focusing in on Steven A. Cohen and his $12.9 billion SAC Capital Advisors, L.P.
Reuters has learned that Kang investigated allegations of trading irregularities at SAC two years ago, though the inquiry concluded with no charges being filed against the firm.
A member of the Federal Bureau of Investigation's securities task force, Kang is heading up the two-year-old insider trading inquiry that has collared Rajaratnam and led to criminal charges being filed against 19 others by federal prosecutors in Manhattan.
It was Kang, too, who signed most of the court applications seeking permission to place wiretaps on phones used by Rajaratnam and several other defendants, said people familiar with the investigation. He also conducted many of the initial interviews with the key cooperating witnesses in the still unfolding case, according to court filings and people close to the probe.
The Galleon investigation has potentially produced a new lead for Kang to pursue against SAC, one of the world's largest and most successful hedge funds. A cooperating witness, Richard Choo-Beng Lee, is expected to provide prosecutors with alleged evidence of insider trading he may have committed between 1999 and 2009 -- a period that includes a five-year stint at SAC, according to the court documents.
For years, Cohen's aggressive, quick-paced trading style and high double-digit returns have earned him both admiration and envy in investing circles.
SAC's flagship onshore fund, S.A.C. Capital Management, L.P., which was launched in 1992, has returned 30 percent net per annum through October 31, 2009, according to marketing material.
"Everyone wants to knock down Steve Cohen, but he is not a multi-billionaire for nothing. They are having a fantastic year," said Bradley Alford, founder of Alpha Capital Management, which invests with Cohen.
But will Kang & Co. spoil the party?
CHANGE AGENT
Just like Cohen, Kang avoids the limelight and refused to be interviewed for this story. The FBI wouldn't even disclose biographical information about him, including his age.
Known simply as B.J. to lawyers and others who have worked with him, Kang, who is Korean-American, once joked that he prefers using initials because his full name is too hard for most people to pronounce. With his accounting background he is able to delve deeply into the minutiae of financial crimes.
But Kang's toughest challenge may lie ahead of him. Lawyers, hedge fund traders and others with knowledge of the ongoing investigation say the agent and federal prosecutors are now focused on a number of former SAC employees whose names have cropped up during the Galleon phase of the inquiry and who also may have engaged in insider trading.
Lee, one of five cooperating witnesses in the Galleon case, is prepared to tell authorities about any insider trading he may have engaged in while working as a technology analyst at SAC from 1999 to 2004, according to a court filing. Most legal experts say prosecutors will have a hard time using any evidence Lee may provide given that it is relatively old.
The government's interest in SAC and Cohen shouldn't surprise anyone. Cohen's firm stands at the pinnacle of the $1.5 trillion hedge fund industry. Critics have often complained that SAC gets better access to information from Wall Street firms because of its sheer size and the hundreds of millions in commissions it pays out.
Since Cohen founded SAC in 1992, it has posted losses just once -- during last year's financial crisis, when the average hedge fund lost 19 percent and Cohen's portfolio was off 27.56 percent.
The firm exudes success. Pricey paintings adorn SAC's headquarters in Stamford, Connecticut, where Cohen sits most days at the center of a giant trading floor surrounded by hundreds of employees. Investors must commit at least $10 million and they pay Cohen more than most rival hedge fund managers -- a 3 percent annual management fee plus as much as 50 percent of the gains he and his traders deliver.
SAC's top traders typically take home lavish compensation packages that stand out even by Wall Street standards.
"When you work for him you are paid to perform," Alpha Capital's Alford said. "And if you don't cut it, it is like in major league sports, you get sent back to the minor leagues," Alford said, adding "SAC has had only one down year."
FIRST RUN-IN
B.J. Kang was two years on the job when he first encountered Cohen's hedge fund. In 2006, the agent was part of the prosecution team looking into alleged accounting irregularities at Canadian insurer Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd, say people familiar with the situation.
In the midst of that government inquiry, Fairfax, in July 2006, sued SAC, James Chanos' Kynikos Associates and other hedge funds, claiming they had engaged in a conspiracy to drive down the price of the insurer's shares because they were shorting -- or betting on a decline in Fairfax's stock price.
Soon after, for reasons that remain unclear, the federal government's interest in pursuing a Fairfax accounting case began to fade. Indeed, this summer Fairfax said it had received notification from the Securities and Exchange Commission that a parallel investigation it had been pursuing was completed and regulators had no plans to "recommend any enforcement action."
In 2007, Kang was assigned to work on a previously undisclosed investigation involving alleged trading irregularities at Cohen's hedge fund, said people familiar with that matter. That inquiry, opened by federal prosecutors in Brooklyn, New York, concluded with authorities declining to take action against Cohen or anyone else associated with SAC.
But before the probe by Brooklyn prosecutors was closed, Kang interviewed former SAC analyst Andrew Tong, who had already become a tabloid sensation -- not to mention an embarrassment to SAC.
In a lawsuit earlier that year Tong had charged that his male supervisor, Ping Jiang, then a top SAC trader, forced him to perform oral sex on him before completing a trade, according to people familiar with the investigation and court papers. Tong also alleged Jiang ordered him to take female hormones to turn him into "the ideal analyst/trader," combining both male and female characteristics, the court documents note.
The case file was quickly sealed by the trial judge, making it difficult for reporters to get a glimpse at all the salacious allegations.
After the litigation ended last year, without any money exchanging hands, the court filings were quietly unsealed. A close review of the documents, in addition to conversations with people familiar with the investigation, reveal that what most interested Kang wasn't the accusations of coerced gay sex, but Tong's allegations of manipulative trading at SAC.
In early 2006, according to the court papers, Jiang directed Tong and at least two other SAC employees to take part in a manipulative trading scheme involving shares of China Yuchai International Ltd., a Chinese-based diesel engine manufacturing company. The court papers suggest the hedge fund took a short position in shares of China Yuchai; betting the stock would fall in price. The papers say Tong and others then began "manufacturing false negative analytical reports about CYD to facilitate this manipulation."
The strategy didn't work and SAC took a $3 million hit, which Tong claims Jiang ultimately blamed on him. Tong alleged that Jiang used the loss as a justification to fire him and that the real reason for his dismissal was his decision to stop taking the female hormones and engaging in "sexual conduct with Mr. Jiang," the documents say.
A lawyer for Jiang didn't return several phone calls. Tong's lawyer, Parisis Filippatos, said his client could not be reached for comment. A spokesman for the prosecutors' office in Brooklyn declined to comment.
It's not clear why the investigation in Brooklyn ended without any action being taken. Nor is it clear what precipitated the inquiry. A related investigation by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission into Tong's sexual harassment allegation was closed in April 2008 with the agency taking no action against the hedge fund or Tong's former boss.
But the court filings in the Tong lawsuit hint at the difficulties Kang and others in law enforcement may face in pursuing a case against SAC if any wrongdoing is ever uncovered. In one filing, Tong recalls Jiang telling him that SAC places a premium on secrecy and guarding its trading strategies -- even from some of the fund's top officers.
(Click here link.reuters.com/guz74g to see a copy of a previously sealed court document from the Tong lawsuit summarizing the sexual harassment and manipulative trading allegations.)
"Steven Cohen only wants us to make money, he doesn't care or want to know our secrets to make money -- SAC doesn't need to know and doesn't want to know," Tong said in the filing, quoting one of Jiang's instructions to him.
CAMERA SHY
Cohen is so intensely private he hates being photographed and has even bought the rights to some pictures taken by freelancers. He has generally dealt with rumors and speculation about questionable trading strategies at SAC by simply ignoring them. That appears to be the strategy he is pursuing this time around as well. A lawyer for the hedge fund declined to comment.
Former SAC employees, however, have already started to talk. Lee's cooperation was secured in part because of incriminating evidence that federal authorities had captured from a government wiretap on his cell phone while working at San Jose, California-based Spherix Capital. (Kang oversaw the tap on Lee's phone.)
In pleading guilty on October 13, Lee signed a cooperation agreement that requires him not only to testify about his misdeeds at Spherix, but also provide prosecutors with any evidence of alleged insider trading over an eight-year period starting in 1999. He worked at SAC for five of them, and the rest of the time was at Stratix Capital Management.
The Wall Street Journal previously has reported that after Spherix closed its doors in February, federal authorities encouraged Lee -- who had begun cooperating with the investigation -- to try to return to SAC. But Cohen refused, the Journal reported, because he was suspicious of the reasons behind Spherix's closing.
Lee is also expected to testify about any improper trading he may have done at Stratix, a hedge fund founded by two more SAC alumni, Richard Grodin and Ian Goodman. That fund, which counted SAC among its investors, closed in 2007. Grodin launched another fund, Quadrum Capital, and it too abruptly shut down this year. A few months ago, federal authorities asked Quadrum to turn over some trading records, but the government hasn't asked for anything since, said a person close to the fund.
MAKING THE CRIMINAL CASE
Of course, Kang isn't infallible. A person familiar with the wiretap applications in the Galleon case cited one example he considered overreaching by Kang in trying to make a criminal case. In that instance, Kang had to make a revision in one wiretap application because he earlier made a wrong conclusion about the identity of a person referred to as "Adam" in one of the taped phone conversations. The person in question actually worked for Galleon -- not for another "independent hedge fund," as Kang had thought, said this source.
Then again, Kang isn't working alone. The other main agent assigned to the Galleon investigation is David Makol, a seven-year veteran of the FBI's other major securities fraud task force based in Kew Gardens, Queens.
Makol had a featured role in the last big Wall Street insider trading prosecution, which centered around a former UBS managing director who took cash from a group of traders in exchange for providing them with advance notice of impending changes in stock recommendations by the investment bank's analysts.
As one of the first prosecutions to reveal the existence of an underground network of day traders and hedge fund managers who barter or buy non-public information to trade on, the UBS insider trading case has served as a road map of sorts for law enforcement in the Galleon investigation.
FRIEND OR FOE
Kang and Cohen haven't always been adversaries. In 2006, Kang was involved in bringing a criminal case against a person who tried to defraud SAC and other businesses. The case involved Michael Lair, a Montana man, who approached a lawyer defending SAC in a lawsuit the Canadian drug company Biovail Corp had filed against SAC. The man had offered to provide SAC's lawyer with allegedly incriminating information about Biovail's attorneys for a fee.
In fact, the Biovail lawyers fired Lair shortly before he approached SAC and its lawyer.
Kang signed the criminal complaint against Lair, who was charged with trying to defraud SAC, Biovail and other companies. In April 2007, Lair pleaded guilty and was sentenced to 27 months in prison. He was also ordered to forfeit some $300,000 in fees he had extracted from a dozen companies that he had fleeced in the scheme.
Six months later, the Galleon investigation was well under way and Kang was onto his next assignment that has opened a new window into Steven Cohen's world. (Reporting by Matthew Goldstein and Svea Herbst-Bayliss; editing by Jim Impoco and Claudia Parsons)
When Bernie Madoff, who engineered history's biggest Ponzi scheme, was arrested, FBI Special Agent Kang was right at his side. And less than a year later, there was Kang again, in a "perp walk," shuffling alongside a handcuffed Raj Rajaratnam, the former hedge fund star at Galleon accused of earning millions off illegally obtained stock tips.
The question on the minds of investors, managers and lawyers inside and outside the hedge fund industry today is, who's next?
Of course, no one knows for sure. But court documents and interviews with many industry sources familiar with the case show that agent Kang may be focusing in on Steven A. Cohen and his $12.9 billion SAC Capital Advisors, L.P.
Reuters has learned that Kang investigated allegations of trading irregularities at SAC two years ago, though the inquiry concluded with no charges being filed against the firm.
A member of the Federal Bureau of Investigation's securities task force, Kang is heading up the two-year-old insider trading inquiry that has collared Rajaratnam and led to criminal charges being filed against 19 others by federal prosecutors in Manhattan.
It was Kang, too, who signed most of the court applications seeking permission to place wiretaps on phones used by Rajaratnam and several other defendants, said people familiar with the investigation. He also conducted many of the initial interviews with the key cooperating witnesses in the still unfolding case, according to court filings and people close to the probe.
The Galleon investigation has potentially produced a new lead for Kang to pursue against SAC, one of the world's largest and most successful hedge funds. A cooperating witness, Richard Choo-Beng Lee, is expected to provide prosecutors with alleged evidence of insider trading he may have committed between 1999 and 2009 -- a period that includes a five-year stint at SAC, according to the court documents.
For years, Cohen's aggressive, quick-paced trading style and high double-digit returns have earned him both admiration and envy in investing circles.
SAC's flagship onshore fund, S.A.C. Capital Management, L.P., which was launched in 1992, has returned 30 percent net per annum through October 31, 2009, according to marketing material.
"Everyone wants to knock down Steve Cohen, but he is not a multi-billionaire for nothing. They are having a fantastic year," said Bradley Alford, founder of Alpha Capital Management, which invests with Cohen.
But will Kang & Co. spoil the party?
CHANGE AGENT
Just like Cohen, Kang avoids the limelight and refused to be interviewed for this story. The FBI wouldn't even disclose biographical information about him, including his age.
Known simply as B.J. to lawyers and others who have worked with him, Kang, who is Korean-American, once joked that he prefers using initials because his full name is too hard for most people to pronounce. With his accounting background he is able to delve deeply into the minutiae of financial crimes.
But Kang's toughest challenge may lie ahead of him. Lawyers, hedge fund traders and others with knowledge of the ongoing investigation say the agent and federal prosecutors are now focused on a number of former SAC employees whose names have cropped up during the Galleon phase of the inquiry and who also may have engaged in insider trading.
Lee, one of five cooperating witnesses in the Galleon case, is prepared to tell authorities about any insider trading he may have engaged in while working as a technology analyst at SAC from 1999 to 2004, according to a court filing. Most legal experts say prosecutors will have a hard time using any evidence Lee may provide given that it is relatively old.
The government's interest in SAC and Cohen shouldn't surprise anyone. Cohen's firm stands at the pinnacle of the $1.5 trillion hedge fund industry. Critics have often complained that SAC gets better access to information from Wall Street firms because of its sheer size and the hundreds of millions in commissions it pays out.
Since Cohen founded SAC in 1992, it has posted losses just once -- during last year's financial crisis, when the average hedge fund lost 19 percent and Cohen's portfolio was off 27.56 percent.
The firm exudes success. Pricey paintings adorn SAC's headquarters in Stamford, Connecticut, where Cohen sits most days at the center of a giant trading floor surrounded by hundreds of employees. Investors must commit at least $10 million and they pay Cohen more than most rival hedge fund managers -- a 3 percent annual management fee plus as much as 50 percent of the gains he and his traders deliver.
SAC's top traders typically take home lavish compensation packages that stand out even by Wall Street standards.
"When you work for him you are paid to perform," Alpha Capital's Alford said. "And if you don't cut it, it is like in major league sports, you get sent back to the minor leagues," Alford said, adding "SAC has had only one down year."
FIRST RUN-IN
B.J. Kang was two years on the job when he first encountered Cohen's hedge fund. In 2006, the agent was part of the prosecution team looking into alleged accounting irregularities at Canadian insurer Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd, say people familiar with the situation.
In the midst of that government inquiry, Fairfax, in July 2006, sued SAC, James Chanos' Kynikos Associates and other hedge funds, claiming they had engaged in a conspiracy to drive down the price of the insurer's shares because they were shorting -- or betting on a decline in Fairfax's stock price.
Soon after, for reasons that remain unclear, the federal government's interest in pursuing a Fairfax accounting case began to fade. Indeed, this summer Fairfax said it had received notification from the Securities and Exchange Commission that a parallel investigation it had been pursuing was completed and regulators had no plans to "recommend any enforcement action."
In 2007, Kang was assigned to work on a previously undisclosed investigation involving alleged trading irregularities at Cohen's hedge fund, said people familiar with that matter. That inquiry, opened by federal prosecutors in Brooklyn, New York, concluded with authorities declining to take action against Cohen or anyone else associated with SAC.
But before the probe by Brooklyn prosecutors was closed, Kang interviewed former SAC analyst Andrew Tong, who had already become a tabloid sensation -- not to mention an embarrassment to SAC.
In a lawsuit earlier that year Tong had charged that his male supervisor, Ping Jiang, then a top SAC trader, forced him to perform oral sex on him before completing a trade, according to people familiar with the investigation and court papers. Tong also alleged Jiang ordered him to take female hormones to turn him into "the ideal analyst/trader," combining both male and female characteristics, the court documents note.
The case file was quickly sealed by the trial judge, making it difficult for reporters to get a glimpse at all the salacious allegations.
After the litigation ended last year, without any money exchanging hands, the court filings were quietly unsealed. A close review of the documents, in addition to conversations with people familiar with the investigation, reveal that what most interested Kang wasn't the accusations of coerced gay sex, but Tong's allegations of manipulative trading at SAC.
In early 2006, according to the court papers, Jiang directed Tong and at least two other SAC employees to take part in a manipulative trading scheme involving shares of China Yuchai International Ltd., a Chinese-based diesel engine manufacturing company. The court papers suggest the hedge fund took a short position in shares of China Yuchai; betting the stock would fall in price. The papers say Tong and others then began "manufacturing false negative analytical reports about CYD to facilitate this manipulation."
The strategy didn't work and SAC took a $3 million hit, which Tong claims Jiang ultimately blamed on him. Tong alleged that Jiang used the loss as a justification to fire him and that the real reason for his dismissal was his decision to stop taking the female hormones and engaging in "sexual conduct with Mr. Jiang," the documents say.
A lawyer for Jiang didn't return several phone calls. Tong's lawyer, Parisis Filippatos, said his client could not be reached for comment. A spokesman for the prosecutors' office in Brooklyn declined to comment.
It's not clear why the investigation in Brooklyn ended without any action being taken. Nor is it clear what precipitated the inquiry. A related investigation by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission into Tong's sexual harassment allegation was closed in April 2008 with the agency taking no action against the hedge fund or Tong's former boss.
But the court filings in the Tong lawsuit hint at the difficulties Kang and others in law enforcement may face in pursuing a case against SAC if any wrongdoing is ever uncovered. In one filing, Tong recalls Jiang telling him that SAC places a premium on secrecy and guarding its trading strategies -- even from some of the fund's top officers.
(Click here link.reuters.com/guz74g to see a copy of a previously sealed court document from the Tong lawsuit summarizing the sexual harassment and manipulative trading allegations.)
"Steven Cohen only wants us to make money, he doesn't care or want to know our secrets to make money -- SAC doesn't need to know and doesn't want to know," Tong said in the filing, quoting one of Jiang's instructions to him.
CAMERA SHY
Cohen is so intensely private he hates being photographed and has even bought the rights to some pictures taken by freelancers. He has generally dealt with rumors and speculation about questionable trading strategies at SAC by simply ignoring them. That appears to be the strategy he is pursuing this time around as well. A lawyer for the hedge fund declined to comment.
Former SAC employees, however, have already started to talk. Lee's cooperation was secured in part because of incriminating evidence that federal authorities had captured from a government wiretap on his cell phone while working at San Jose, California-based Spherix Capital. (Kang oversaw the tap on Lee's phone.)
In pleading guilty on October 13, Lee signed a cooperation agreement that requires him not only to testify about his misdeeds at Spherix, but also provide prosecutors with any evidence of alleged insider trading over an eight-year period starting in 1999. He worked at SAC for five of them, and the rest of the time was at Stratix Capital Management.
The Wall Street Journal previously has reported that after Spherix closed its doors in February, federal authorities encouraged Lee -- who had begun cooperating with the investigation -- to try to return to SAC. But Cohen refused, the Journal reported, because he was suspicious of the reasons behind Spherix's closing.
Lee is also expected to testify about any improper trading he may have done at Stratix, a hedge fund founded by two more SAC alumni, Richard Grodin and Ian Goodman. That fund, which counted SAC among its investors, closed in 2007. Grodin launched another fund, Quadrum Capital, and it too abruptly shut down this year. A few months ago, federal authorities asked Quadrum to turn over some trading records, but the government hasn't asked for anything since, said a person close to the fund.
MAKING THE CRIMINAL CASE
Of course, Kang isn't infallible. A person familiar with the wiretap applications in the Galleon case cited one example he considered overreaching by Kang in trying to make a criminal case. In that instance, Kang had to make a revision in one wiretap application because he earlier made a wrong conclusion about the identity of a person referred to as "Adam" in one of the taped phone conversations. The person in question actually worked for Galleon -- not for another "independent hedge fund," as Kang had thought, said this source.
Then again, Kang isn't working alone. The other main agent assigned to the Galleon investigation is David Makol, a seven-year veteran of the FBI's other major securities fraud task force based in Kew Gardens, Queens.
Makol had a featured role in the last big Wall Street insider trading prosecution, which centered around a former UBS managing director who took cash from a group of traders in exchange for providing them with advance notice of impending changes in stock recommendations by the investment bank's analysts.
As one of the first prosecutions to reveal the existence of an underground network of day traders and hedge fund managers who barter or buy non-public information to trade on, the UBS insider trading case has served as a road map of sorts for law enforcement in the Galleon investigation.
FRIEND OR FOE
Kang and Cohen haven't always been adversaries. In 2006, Kang was involved in bringing a criminal case against a person who tried to defraud SAC and other businesses. The case involved Michael Lair, a Montana man, who approached a lawyer defending SAC in a lawsuit the Canadian drug company Biovail Corp had filed against SAC. The man had offered to provide SAC's lawyer with allegedly incriminating information about Biovail's attorneys for a fee.
In fact, the Biovail lawyers fired Lair shortly before he approached SAC and its lawyer.
Kang signed the criminal complaint against Lair, who was charged with trying to defraud SAC, Biovail and other companies. In April 2007, Lair pleaded guilty and was sentenced to 27 months in prison. He was also ordered to forfeit some $300,000 in fees he had extracted from a dozen companies that he had fleeced in the scheme.
Six months later, the Galleon investigation was well under way and Kang was onto his next assignment that has opened a new window into Steven Cohen's world. (Reporting by Matthew Goldstein and Svea Herbst-Bayliss; editing by Jim Impoco and Claudia Parsons)
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Click on the below 2 links title to get into low yat forum
was sharing & posting my ideas on low yat forum
it was an interesting experience while there
learnt about checking futures via bloomberg
buy the dip theory, as usd is cheap
daytrading etf bull-bear sectors
to make it less stressful
i'll post my watchlist here instead
without the pressure of defending is my pick right or wrong
& also the comments by others which make me think of my position twice
found it very distracting
happy holidays & time to bid farewell to year 2009
it was an interesting experience while there
learnt about checking futures via bloomberg
buy the dip theory, as usd is cheap
daytrading etf bull-bear sectors
to make it less stressful
i'll post my watchlist here instead
without the pressure of defending is my pick right or wrong
& also the comments by others which make me think of my position twice
found it very distracting
happy holidays & time to bid farewell to year 2009
Hedge Funds Buying as Individuals Sell in Bull Signal
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aJBx8htrQNTg
Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds are shoveling money into stocks as individuals exit at the fastest rate in a year, a sign to professional investors that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is poised to extend its gains.
About $37.3 billion has been pulled from U.S. mutual funds since August, according to the Investment Company Institute. Hedge funds -- which lost half as much on average as the S&P 500 since stocks peaked in October 2007 -- boosted bets to the highest level since the end of that year in the third quarter and have kept buying, according to data compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., industry consultants and Bloomberg.
“The more sophisticated investors are seeing the opportunity, but retail investors are still scarred,” said James Dunigan, the Philadelphia-based chief investment officer for the wealth management division at PNC Financial Services, which oversees $104 billion. “It suggests that the rally still has room to go.”
Before credit markets started to freeze in August 2007, the last time mutual funds saw outflows this big was in the nine months up to February 2003, just as the S&P 500 began a five- year rally. Now, the sales are offering opportunities to Paulson & Co., Christofferson Robb & Co. and Passport Capital Management LLC to bet the more than $11 trillion lent, spent or guaranteed by the U.S. government to end the recession will lift stocks.
Individuals, who account for 82 percent of mutual fund owners, took $21.4 billion more out of equities than they’ve added and put $312.8 billion into bonds this year through the end of October, according to Washington-based ICI.
Bearish Bests
Investments designed to profit when stocks retreat increased. So-called bear-market and long-short mutual funds attracted a record $10 billion this year through October, more than double the previous high in 2006, according to Morningstar Inc. So-called retail managers have opened 19 long-short funds, the most in a year.
By contrast, hedge funds raised their stakes by 21 percent to $604 billion in the third quarter, according to Goldman Sachs. They held $363 billion in short sales, or bets that stocks will drop, the data show. The funds now own 3.8 percent of the Russell 3000 Index, which includes the largest American companies, the highest percentage this year.
Hedge funds, mostly private pools of capital whose managers participate substantially in the profits from speculating on whether the price of assets will rise or fall, got $1.1 billion of net investments in the three months through September, according to Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc. The increase was the first in a year for the $1.53 trillion industry.
March Rally
The S&P 500 advanced 15 percent in that period and has rallied 62 percent since reaching a low on March 9, for a 2009 return of 24 percent including reinvested dividends. The gauge added 0.4 percent to 1,095.63 as of 4 p.m. in New York.
“It makes sense hedge funds are getting long given that the market’s up so much in a six-month period,” said Harry Rady, who oversees $250 million as chief executive officer of Rady Asset Management LLC, a La Jolla, California-based manager whose hedge fund has been adding to stocks. “The Fed has said they’re not going to let the market go down and they’ve done it by pumping liquidity into a variety of markets and that’s spilled into the equity market. People have the confidence to take equity risk.”
Most U.S. stocks fell last week as speculation Dubai may default spurred concern that the recovery in the global financial system will stall, overshadowing fewer American jobless claims and increasing home sales. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1 percent to 10,309.92, while 273 companies in the S&P 500 declined compared with 224 that rose.
Buying Stock
Managers added to stocks in the last two months, according to London-based investment adviser Kinetic Partners, which includes two-thirds of the 50 largest U.K. hedge funds as clients, and Conifer Securities LLC in San Francisco, which executes trades for more than 100 of the firms.
About 900 went out of business during 2008 as the S&P 500 fell 38 percent, the steepest drop in seven decades, according to data compiled by Hedge Fund Research and Bloomberg.
Hedge fund assets may increase to $1.75 trillion by the end of 2010, Morgan Stanley’s Huw van Steenis wrote in a Nov. 23 report. Peter Clarke, chief executive officer of Man Group Plc, the biggest publicly traded hedge-fund manager, said in a meeting with reporters Nov. 23 that he expects the industry to receive as much as $50 billion a quarter next year.
New Cycle
“The whole idea of hedge funds is very flexible: you can use your initiative to back the horse that’s winning this particular race and then move on,” said Andrew Shrimpton, a hedge-fund adviser at Kinetic. “It’s the beginning of a new cycle, really. Money’s starting to flow in and there is ability to leverage up on that money especially if the collateral is liquid collateral such as equities.”
Stock speculation is increasing after the Federal Reserve held its target rate for overnight loans between banks near zero since December. Three-month dollar Libor, a benchmark for lending by brokerages for stock purchases, fell to a record low of 0.254 percent this month.
Equity buying by hedge funds may be less bullish because managers are using options, short sales and credit-default swaps to protect their investments, according to Mark Yusko, president of Morgan Creek Capital Management LLC, an adviser to funds of funds in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, based on prices paid to insure against losses in the S&P 500, slipped to 20.05 last week, the lowest level in 15 months, before jumping to 24.74.
Shorting, Options
“Yes, hedge funds are buying stocks, but they’re also shorting stocks in record numbers and buying put options in record levels,” Yusko said in a telephone interview. “It basically neutralizes a lot of their equity exposure.” Puts are options that pay off when a stock, commodity or index declines.
Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped in March and remains above historic levels. Stock sold short equaled 3.51 percent of shares outstanding at the end of October, or 40 percent above the average this decade.
“Most of the managers we know think the rally’s far overextended, that equities are way overpriced, and that they’re due for a very significant, long correction,” Yusko said. Morgan Creek manages about $9 billion for institutions and wealthy clients.
Valuations
The S&P 500 traded last week for 21.9 times the past year’s earnings from its companies, the highest since 2002. The Labor Department may say on Dec. 4 that the U.S. unemployment rate held at 10.2 percent this month, according to the median estimate of 65 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. A report this week is projected to show growth in construction spending slipped.
Paulson, the hedge-fund manager whose wagers against the U.S. housing market helped him earn an estimated $2 billion last year, bought Bank of America Corp. stock in the second quarter, while adding to stakes in gold companies. Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America has climbed 127 percent since the end of March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Paulson told investors in a quarterly letter this month that he expects Bank of America stock to almost double in the next two years as writedowns ease.
Christofferson’s Brad Golding, whose CRC Financials Opportunities fund beat 95 percent of its peers in 2008 with a 109 percent gain, said he bought shares of Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. because the firm trades below book value, or the cost of its assets. The New York-based brokerage has rallied 23 percent since the end of the third quarter.
Favorite Stocks
Pfizer Inc., Bank of America and Apple Inc. ranked as the most popular stocks among hedge funds with more than 147 owning shares, according to Goldman Sachs’s survey of 13F regulatory filings. New York-based Pfizer, the world’s biggest drugmaker, added 45 percent since the S&P 500 fell to a 12-year low on March 9, while Cupertino, California-based Apple, maker of the iPhone, surged 141 percent.
“This is a phenomenon that should continue into next year and perhaps far into next year,” said John Burbank III, the chief investment officer of Passport Capital, a $2.1 billion hedge-fund firm in San Francisco that began adding shares halfway into the rally. Individuals “may never believe in equities again, we don’t know,” he said. “But hedge funds are generally increasing, partly because they’ve been conservative, and partly because they see opportunities to make money.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net; Mary Childs in New York at mchilds4@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: November 30, 2009 17:20 EST
Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds are shoveling money into stocks as individuals exit at the fastest rate in a year, a sign to professional investors that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is poised to extend its gains.
About $37.3 billion has been pulled from U.S. mutual funds since August, according to the Investment Company Institute. Hedge funds -- which lost half as much on average as the S&P 500 since stocks peaked in October 2007 -- boosted bets to the highest level since the end of that year in the third quarter and have kept buying, according to data compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., industry consultants and Bloomberg.
“The more sophisticated investors are seeing the opportunity, but retail investors are still scarred,” said James Dunigan, the Philadelphia-based chief investment officer for the wealth management division at PNC Financial Services, which oversees $104 billion. “It suggests that the rally still has room to go.”
Before credit markets started to freeze in August 2007, the last time mutual funds saw outflows this big was in the nine months up to February 2003, just as the S&P 500 began a five- year rally. Now, the sales are offering opportunities to Paulson & Co., Christofferson Robb & Co. and Passport Capital Management LLC to bet the more than $11 trillion lent, spent or guaranteed by the U.S. government to end the recession will lift stocks.
Individuals, who account for 82 percent of mutual fund owners, took $21.4 billion more out of equities than they’ve added and put $312.8 billion into bonds this year through the end of October, according to Washington-based ICI.
Bearish Bests
Investments designed to profit when stocks retreat increased. So-called bear-market and long-short mutual funds attracted a record $10 billion this year through October, more than double the previous high in 2006, according to Morningstar Inc. So-called retail managers have opened 19 long-short funds, the most in a year.
By contrast, hedge funds raised their stakes by 21 percent to $604 billion in the third quarter, according to Goldman Sachs. They held $363 billion in short sales, or bets that stocks will drop, the data show. The funds now own 3.8 percent of the Russell 3000 Index, which includes the largest American companies, the highest percentage this year.
Hedge funds, mostly private pools of capital whose managers participate substantially in the profits from speculating on whether the price of assets will rise or fall, got $1.1 billion of net investments in the three months through September, according to Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc. The increase was the first in a year for the $1.53 trillion industry.
March Rally
The S&P 500 advanced 15 percent in that period and has rallied 62 percent since reaching a low on March 9, for a 2009 return of 24 percent including reinvested dividends. The gauge added 0.4 percent to 1,095.63 as of 4 p.m. in New York.
“It makes sense hedge funds are getting long given that the market’s up so much in a six-month period,” said Harry Rady, who oversees $250 million as chief executive officer of Rady Asset Management LLC, a La Jolla, California-based manager whose hedge fund has been adding to stocks. “The Fed has said they’re not going to let the market go down and they’ve done it by pumping liquidity into a variety of markets and that’s spilled into the equity market. People have the confidence to take equity risk.”
Most U.S. stocks fell last week as speculation Dubai may default spurred concern that the recovery in the global financial system will stall, overshadowing fewer American jobless claims and increasing home sales. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1 percent to 10,309.92, while 273 companies in the S&P 500 declined compared with 224 that rose.
Buying Stock
Managers added to stocks in the last two months, according to London-based investment adviser Kinetic Partners, which includes two-thirds of the 50 largest U.K. hedge funds as clients, and Conifer Securities LLC in San Francisco, which executes trades for more than 100 of the firms.
About 900 went out of business during 2008 as the S&P 500 fell 38 percent, the steepest drop in seven decades, according to data compiled by Hedge Fund Research and Bloomberg.
Hedge fund assets may increase to $1.75 trillion by the end of 2010, Morgan Stanley’s Huw van Steenis wrote in a Nov. 23 report. Peter Clarke, chief executive officer of Man Group Plc, the biggest publicly traded hedge-fund manager, said in a meeting with reporters Nov. 23 that he expects the industry to receive as much as $50 billion a quarter next year.
New Cycle
“The whole idea of hedge funds is very flexible: you can use your initiative to back the horse that’s winning this particular race and then move on,” said Andrew Shrimpton, a hedge-fund adviser at Kinetic. “It’s the beginning of a new cycle, really. Money’s starting to flow in and there is ability to leverage up on that money especially if the collateral is liquid collateral such as equities.”
Stock speculation is increasing after the Federal Reserve held its target rate for overnight loans between banks near zero since December. Three-month dollar Libor, a benchmark for lending by brokerages for stock purchases, fell to a record low of 0.254 percent this month.
Equity buying by hedge funds may be less bullish because managers are using options, short sales and credit-default swaps to protect their investments, according to Mark Yusko, president of Morgan Creek Capital Management LLC, an adviser to funds of funds in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, based on prices paid to insure against losses in the S&P 500, slipped to 20.05 last week, the lowest level in 15 months, before jumping to 24.74.
Shorting, Options
“Yes, hedge funds are buying stocks, but they’re also shorting stocks in record numbers and buying put options in record levels,” Yusko said in a telephone interview. “It basically neutralizes a lot of their equity exposure.” Puts are options that pay off when a stock, commodity or index declines.
Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped in March and remains above historic levels. Stock sold short equaled 3.51 percent of shares outstanding at the end of October, or 40 percent above the average this decade.
“Most of the managers we know think the rally’s far overextended, that equities are way overpriced, and that they’re due for a very significant, long correction,” Yusko said. Morgan Creek manages about $9 billion for institutions and wealthy clients.
Valuations
The S&P 500 traded last week for 21.9 times the past year’s earnings from its companies, the highest since 2002. The Labor Department may say on Dec. 4 that the U.S. unemployment rate held at 10.2 percent this month, according to the median estimate of 65 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. A report this week is projected to show growth in construction spending slipped.
Paulson, the hedge-fund manager whose wagers against the U.S. housing market helped him earn an estimated $2 billion last year, bought Bank of America Corp. stock in the second quarter, while adding to stakes in gold companies. Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America has climbed 127 percent since the end of March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Paulson told investors in a quarterly letter this month that he expects Bank of America stock to almost double in the next two years as writedowns ease.
Christofferson’s Brad Golding, whose CRC Financials Opportunities fund beat 95 percent of its peers in 2008 with a 109 percent gain, said he bought shares of Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. because the firm trades below book value, or the cost of its assets. The New York-based brokerage has rallied 23 percent since the end of the third quarter.
Favorite Stocks
Pfizer Inc., Bank of America and Apple Inc. ranked as the most popular stocks among hedge funds with more than 147 owning shares, according to Goldman Sachs’s survey of 13F regulatory filings. New York-based Pfizer, the world’s biggest drugmaker, added 45 percent since the S&P 500 fell to a 12-year low on March 9, while Cupertino, California-based Apple, maker of the iPhone, surged 141 percent.
“This is a phenomenon that should continue into next year and perhaps far into next year,” said John Burbank III, the chief investment officer of Passport Capital, a $2.1 billion hedge-fund firm in San Francisco that began adding shares halfway into the rally. Individuals “may never believe in equities again, we don’t know,” he said. “But hedge funds are generally increasing, partly because they’ve been conservative, and partly because they see opportunities to make money.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net; Mary Childs in New York at mchilds4@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: November 30, 2009 17:20 EST
Was busy posting at another forum
Paul B. Farrell
Dec. 1, 2009, 12:01 a.m. EST · Recommend (16) · Post:
Obama's 'predictably irrational' economic policies
14 reasons Obama's love of Wall Street will trigger the Great Depression 2
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-leading-us-right-to-great-depression-2-2009-12-01?pagenumber=1
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- First: Kiss the rally good-bye, says Jeremy Grantham, legendary CEO of the $101 billion GMO money-management firm.
Why? The market is overvalued 25%. A minimum 15% correction is coming in 2010, putting the Dow in the 8,000-9,000 range. The S&P 500? Not at 666 like last spring; maybe 800. Why a top? Black Friday? Dubai? Tiger Woods? All the dark films? The "2012" end of civilization? The post-apocalyptic "The Road?" Stop guessing, timing market turns is irrational.
Grantham's shift from bull to bear appears rational. Remember, earlier this year the Dow was near 6,000, banks near bankrupt, and we were praying for the new untested president to change America. In his latest editorial Grantham reminds us why his prediction made sense in the spring: "Regardless of the fundamentals, there would be a sharp rally. After a very large decline and a period of somewhat blind panic, it is simply the nature of the beast." Get it? A rally was predictable, based on the history of cycles.
Trust Grantham? 100%. Back in early 2007, he warned: "The First Truly Global Bubble: From Indian antiquities to modern Chinese art; from land in Panama to Mayfair; from forestry, infrastructure, and the junkiest bonds to mundane blue chips; it's bubble time. ... Everyone, everywhere is reinforcing one another. ... The bursting of the bubble will be across all countries and all assets ... no similar global event has occurred before."
Grantham was one of a small group of industry leaders who saw a crash coming as early as 2000. But political leaders were ideologically blind: Fed Czar Ben Bernanke said the collapsing markets were "contained." Our devious Treasury Czar Henry Paulson was misleading Fortune and all America: "This is far and away the strongest global economy I've seen in my business lifetime." Worse, former Fed Czar Alan Greenspan was busy writing his memoirs bragging about how he invented a "New World" out of Reaganomics, Ayn Rand's New Age wishful-thinking and an unregulated $670 trillion derivatives market.
Three clueless leaders.
Grantham bearish, short-term correction, long-term disaster
Now Grantham's warning us again: America's irrational nightmare will repeat. First, the short-term correction, 15% to 25%. But then long-term, a deadly warning: Disaster ahead. Why? Because America has "learned nothing," we are "condemning ourselves to another serious financial crisis in the not too-distant future."
Yes, Americans are predictably irrational, doomed to repeat history: Grantham points us to a key chart, his "favorite example of a last hurrah after the first leg of the 1929 crash." The similarity between 1929-30 and today are obvious: "After the sharp decline in the fall of 1929, the S&P 500 rallied 46% from its low in November to the rally high of April 12, 1930, then, of course, fell by over 80%."
Familiar? You bet. We've had our rally. Next, the plunge. Our irrationality plus history guarantees another ... only bigger.
A year ago America came dangerously close to the Great Depression 2. We "learned nothing." When psychologist Daniel Kahneman won the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economic Science for his work on irrationality in 2002, the sense was that behavioral economics would help Main Street become "less irrational," that behavioral sciences would make us all better investors, better consumers, better citizens.
Obama even made a big issue of working with behavioral scientists to minimize irrational behavior in America.
Obama gets failing grade in behavioral economics
But they turned against us. Behavioral scientists, behavioral economists and behavioral-finance experts have become the mortal enemies of Main Street America. Two ways: First, behaviorists consistently put us down by reminding us how irrational (stupid) we are. Second: They're using their minds, tools and technologies against us, helping Wall Street profile us as targets for investing products, bank customer fees, tax propaganda, etc.
They are paid mercenaries helping Wall Street scam Americans out of billions. They cannot be trusted, they have lost their independence and professional integrity. They are failing to expose the most toxic sources of irrationality: Wall Street, Congress, the White House.
And that's why when a guy like Jeremy Grantham comes along focusing us on the toxic irrationality at the top of America's leadership he deserves to be seen as one of America's best behavioral economists. He's one of the few honest behaviorists, exposing the irrationality of America's leaders.
So please listen closely to his 14-point analysis of the rampant irrationality at the highest level of American government today, because what he is also predicting is another catastrophic meltdown dead ahead.
1. Obama's shift into 'predictably irrational' economics
If Grantham ever was a fan, he's clearly disillusioned with the president. His 14 points expose the extremely irrational behavior of Obama breaking promises by turning Washington over to Wall Street, a blunder that will trigger the Great Depression 2. Grantham is cynical but subtle. If you want a more brutal attack, read Matt Taibbi's latest Rolling Stone feature: "Obama's Big Sellout," detailing how Obama, same as Bush, turned government over to Wall Street, to the same crooks who created the mess.
2. Bernanke's reappointment, a totally irrational blunder
"The most passionate cheerleader of Greenspan's follies ... completely clueless." A blunder "like reappointing the Titanic's captain" and "a wasted opportunity."
3. Summers, Geithner: Wall Street's newest Trojan Horses
Larry Summers blew "no warning whistles of impending doom back in 2006 and 2007." Earlier as Treasury Secretary he "beat back attempts to regulate" derivatives. Tim Geithner "sat in the very engine room of the USS Disaster and helped steer her onto the rocks" as New York Fed Czar. Still an irrational Obama appointed him, as Wall Street cheered.
4. Idiotic, irrational, greedy mortgage borrowers
"The more misguided or reckless the borrowers, the more determined the efforts to help them out," although "these efforts had limited effect." Short-term politics, bad economics.
5. Reckless, irrational and stupid home builders
They "magnificently overbuilt" for years." Still our irrational president stimulated "even more home building by giving new house buyers $8,000 each."
6. Nation of irrational overspenders and undersavers
Americans have been "dangerously overconsuming for the last 15 years." Still, our irrational politicians "encourage consumption and penalize savers by maintaining artificially low rates" fueling the same irrational speculation that created the meltdown.
7. America's too-Irrational-to-fail' banking system
Our banking "system shows every sign of being out of control." Make it simpler, smaller, "so they can be allowed to fail." Separate the "dangerously risk-seeking hedge fund heart from the banking system." Instead Obama set up a bizarre, irrational policy ... force them to be bigger." Now they're "at extreme tilt to risk-taking: it's practically a cliff!"
8. Wall Street's unconscionable crooked mega-bonuses
"Two-thirds of Goldman's huge profits went for bonuses ... largest ever." Last year the "same guys were on the edge of a run on the bank ... saved only by government." Our irrational president upset "the formerly infallible workings of capitalism."
9. Corporate America's grossly overpaid CEOs
"Galling," says Grantham: When he came to America in 1964 "the ratio of CEO pay to the average worker was ... between 20/1 and 40/1." That had "held for the previous 30 years. By 2006, this ratio had exploded to between 400/1 and 600/1 ... obscene."
10. Our irrationally overleveraged, zombie companies
Wall Street has "so overstimulated the risk-taking environment that junky, weak, marginal companies and zombie banks" outperform, with "junk over the great blue chips." We let losers "live to compete against the companies that actually deserve to be survivors." That's "not healthy for the long-term well-being of the economy."
11. Our irrationally managed U.S. auto industry
"Most short-sighted industry of the last 20 (40?) years, and one of the worst managed."
12. A nation addicted to automobiles, dying for more oil
"We chew up a dangerously large amount of Middle Eastern oil ... ruinous for our global political well-being (and ability to avoid war)" and bad for "an overheating world." Still, our irrational politicians are subsidizing more car purchases.
13. Stock options give CEOs a legal right to steal from shareholders
They're robbing us: Corporate CEOs have a "legalized way to abscond with the stockholders' equity." If management messes up and the stock crashes, they just "rewrite the options at new low prices ... no serious attempt to match stock option ... to the building of long-term franchise value. Instead, the motto is: grab it now and run!"
14. Finally, Grantham's irrational 'old nemesis, Greenspan'
He gets "the title of Maestro in the U.S. and is knighted by the Queen ... for thoroughly demolishing the integrity of the U.S. financial system. He overtly ignored the great threat of bubbles in asset classes and, in fact, encouraged them. He Ayn Rand-ishly facilitated the progressive dismantling of governmental restrictions on financial behavior, he deliberately kept real interest rates at zero for years, etc., etc., etc. You have heard it before. ... In the good old days, he would have been set in the village stocks, and not the kind you buy and sell. And I would have been right there, Alan, with very ripe tomatoes."
In the end Grantham encourages everyone to read a John Kay article in the Financial Times. Kay's title says it all: "Our banks are beyond the control of mere mortals." He advises investors to "follow an aphorism of Warren Buffett's: 'Invest only in businesses that an idiot can run, because sooner or later an idiot will.'"
Rereading Buffett's wisdom I wonder: Perhaps America really is a "business" that nobody can run? Not the best and brightest. Nor an idiot. And certainly not our too-clever behavioral scientists.
Moreover, "people" are not the problem. The 1982 classic "In Search of Excellence" tells us that 85% of organizational failures were systemic, not people caused. "It's the system stupid." That means America, our economy, our markets, our capitalist system have become too big, too complex, too out-of-control, too unmanageable.
Our wealthy elite already know that and are grabbing what's left. The "idiot" masses could regain control, but only in a 1776-style revolution, except they're too docile, too irrational to revolt.
Dec. 1, 2009, 12:01 a.m. EST · Recommend (16) · Post:
Obama's 'predictably irrational' economic policies
14 reasons Obama's love of Wall Street will trigger the Great Depression 2
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-leading-us-right-to-great-depression-2-2009-12-01?pagenumber=1
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- First: Kiss the rally good-bye, says Jeremy Grantham, legendary CEO of the $101 billion GMO money-management firm.
Why? The market is overvalued 25%. A minimum 15% correction is coming in 2010, putting the Dow in the 8,000-9,000 range. The S&P 500? Not at 666 like last spring; maybe 800. Why a top? Black Friday? Dubai? Tiger Woods? All the dark films? The "2012" end of civilization? The post-apocalyptic "The Road?" Stop guessing, timing market turns is irrational.
Grantham's shift from bull to bear appears rational. Remember, earlier this year the Dow was near 6,000, banks near bankrupt, and we were praying for the new untested president to change America. In his latest editorial Grantham reminds us why his prediction made sense in the spring: "Regardless of the fundamentals, there would be a sharp rally. After a very large decline and a period of somewhat blind panic, it is simply the nature of the beast." Get it? A rally was predictable, based on the history of cycles.
Trust Grantham? 100%. Back in early 2007, he warned: "The First Truly Global Bubble: From Indian antiquities to modern Chinese art; from land in Panama to Mayfair; from forestry, infrastructure, and the junkiest bonds to mundane blue chips; it's bubble time. ... Everyone, everywhere is reinforcing one another. ... The bursting of the bubble will be across all countries and all assets ... no similar global event has occurred before."
Grantham was one of a small group of industry leaders who saw a crash coming as early as 2000. But political leaders were ideologically blind: Fed Czar Ben Bernanke said the collapsing markets were "contained." Our devious Treasury Czar Henry Paulson was misleading Fortune and all America: "This is far and away the strongest global economy I've seen in my business lifetime." Worse, former Fed Czar Alan Greenspan was busy writing his memoirs bragging about how he invented a "New World" out of Reaganomics, Ayn Rand's New Age wishful-thinking and an unregulated $670 trillion derivatives market.
Three clueless leaders.
Grantham bearish, short-term correction, long-term disaster
Now Grantham's warning us again: America's irrational nightmare will repeat. First, the short-term correction, 15% to 25%. But then long-term, a deadly warning: Disaster ahead. Why? Because America has "learned nothing," we are "condemning ourselves to another serious financial crisis in the not too-distant future."
Yes, Americans are predictably irrational, doomed to repeat history: Grantham points us to a key chart, his "favorite example of a last hurrah after the first leg of the 1929 crash." The similarity between 1929-30 and today are obvious: "After the sharp decline in the fall of 1929, the S&P 500 rallied 46% from its low in November to the rally high of April 12, 1930, then, of course, fell by over 80%."
Familiar? You bet. We've had our rally. Next, the plunge. Our irrationality plus history guarantees another ... only bigger.
A year ago America came dangerously close to the Great Depression 2. We "learned nothing." When psychologist Daniel Kahneman won the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economic Science for his work on irrationality in 2002, the sense was that behavioral economics would help Main Street become "less irrational," that behavioral sciences would make us all better investors, better consumers, better citizens.
Obama even made a big issue of working with behavioral scientists to minimize irrational behavior in America.
Obama gets failing grade in behavioral economics
But they turned against us. Behavioral scientists, behavioral economists and behavioral-finance experts have become the mortal enemies of Main Street America. Two ways: First, behaviorists consistently put us down by reminding us how irrational (stupid) we are. Second: They're using their minds, tools and technologies against us, helping Wall Street profile us as targets for investing products, bank customer fees, tax propaganda, etc.
They are paid mercenaries helping Wall Street scam Americans out of billions. They cannot be trusted, they have lost their independence and professional integrity. They are failing to expose the most toxic sources of irrationality: Wall Street, Congress, the White House.
And that's why when a guy like Jeremy Grantham comes along focusing us on the toxic irrationality at the top of America's leadership he deserves to be seen as one of America's best behavioral economists. He's one of the few honest behaviorists, exposing the irrationality of America's leaders.
So please listen closely to his 14-point analysis of the rampant irrationality at the highest level of American government today, because what he is also predicting is another catastrophic meltdown dead ahead.
1. Obama's shift into 'predictably irrational' economics
If Grantham ever was a fan, he's clearly disillusioned with the president. His 14 points expose the extremely irrational behavior of Obama breaking promises by turning Washington over to Wall Street, a blunder that will trigger the Great Depression 2. Grantham is cynical but subtle. If you want a more brutal attack, read Matt Taibbi's latest Rolling Stone feature: "Obama's Big Sellout," detailing how Obama, same as Bush, turned government over to Wall Street, to the same crooks who created the mess.
2. Bernanke's reappointment, a totally irrational blunder
"The most passionate cheerleader of Greenspan's follies ... completely clueless." A blunder "like reappointing the Titanic's captain" and "a wasted opportunity."
3. Summers, Geithner: Wall Street's newest Trojan Horses
Larry Summers blew "no warning whistles of impending doom back in 2006 and 2007." Earlier as Treasury Secretary he "beat back attempts to regulate" derivatives. Tim Geithner "sat in the very engine room of the USS Disaster and helped steer her onto the rocks" as New York Fed Czar. Still an irrational Obama appointed him, as Wall Street cheered.
4. Idiotic, irrational, greedy mortgage borrowers
"The more misguided or reckless the borrowers, the more determined the efforts to help them out," although "these efforts had limited effect." Short-term politics, bad economics.
5. Reckless, irrational and stupid home builders
They "magnificently overbuilt" for years." Still our irrational president stimulated "even more home building by giving new house buyers $8,000 each."
6. Nation of irrational overspenders and undersavers
Americans have been "dangerously overconsuming for the last 15 years." Still, our irrational politicians "encourage consumption and penalize savers by maintaining artificially low rates" fueling the same irrational speculation that created the meltdown.
7. America's too-Irrational-to-fail' banking system
Our banking "system shows every sign of being out of control." Make it simpler, smaller, "so they can be allowed to fail." Separate the "dangerously risk-seeking hedge fund heart from the banking system." Instead Obama set up a bizarre, irrational policy ... force them to be bigger." Now they're "at extreme tilt to risk-taking: it's practically a cliff!"
8. Wall Street's unconscionable crooked mega-bonuses
"Two-thirds of Goldman's huge profits went for bonuses ... largest ever." Last year the "same guys were on the edge of a run on the bank ... saved only by government." Our irrational president upset "the formerly infallible workings of capitalism."
9. Corporate America's grossly overpaid CEOs
"Galling," says Grantham: When he came to America in 1964 "the ratio of CEO pay to the average worker was ... between 20/1 and 40/1." That had "held for the previous 30 years. By 2006, this ratio had exploded to between 400/1 and 600/1 ... obscene."
10. Our irrationally overleveraged, zombie companies
Wall Street has "so overstimulated the risk-taking environment that junky, weak, marginal companies and zombie banks" outperform, with "junk over the great blue chips." We let losers "live to compete against the companies that actually deserve to be survivors." That's "not healthy for the long-term well-being of the economy."
11. Our irrationally managed U.S. auto industry
"Most short-sighted industry of the last 20 (40?) years, and one of the worst managed."
12. A nation addicted to automobiles, dying for more oil
"We chew up a dangerously large amount of Middle Eastern oil ... ruinous for our global political well-being (and ability to avoid war)" and bad for "an overheating world." Still, our irrational politicians are subsidizing more car purchases.
13. Stock options give CEOs a legal right to steal from shareholders
They're robbing us: Corporate CEOs have a "legalized way to abscond with the stockholders' equity." If management messes up and the stock crashes, they just "rewrite the options at new low prices ... no serious attempt to match stock option ... to the building of long-term franchise value. Instead, the motto is: grab it now and run!"
14. Finally, Grantham's irrational 'old nemesis, Greenspan'
He gets "the title of Maestro in the U.S. and is knighted by the Queen ... for thoroughly demolishing the integrity of the U.S. financial system. He overtly ignored the great threat of bubbles in asset classes and, in fact, encouraged them. He Ayn Rand-ishly facilitated the progressive dismantling of governmental restrictions on financial behavior, he deliberately kept real interest rates at zero for years, etc., etc., etc. You have heard it before. ... In the good old days, he would have been set in the village stocks, and not the kind you buy and sell. And I would have been right there, Alan, with very ripe tomatoes."
In the end Grantham encourages everyone to read a John Kay article in the Financial Times. Kay's title says it all: "Our banks are beyond the control of mere mortals." He advises investors to "follow an aphorism of Warren Buffett's: 'Invest only in businesses that an idiot can run, because sooner or later an idiot will.'"
Rereading Buffett's wisdom I wonder: Perhaps America really is a "business" that nobody can run? Not the best and brightest. Nor an idiot. And certainly not our too-clever behavioral scientists.
Moreover, "people" are not the problem. The 1982 classic "In Search of Excellence" tells us that 85% of organizational failures were systemic, not people caused. "It's the system stupid." That means America, our economy, our markets, our capitalist system have become too big, too complex, too out-of-control, too unmanageable.
Our wealthy elite already know that and are grabbing what's left. The "idiot" masses could regain control, but only in a 1776-style revolution, except they're too docile, too irrational to revolt.
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